Western sanctions and cheap oil will cost the Russian economy 600 billion dollars — economists

The combination of the two shocks experienced by the Russian economy – the financial sanctions and the fall in oil prices over 2014-2017 will cost her about 0.6 trillion dollars.

About this «Vedomosti» reports with reference to the data of calculations Evsey Gurvich and Ilya Prilepsko of «Economic expert group».

It is noted that losses from the financial sanctions will amount to about 170 billion dollars, the lost revenue from oil and gas exports about 400 billion dollars. Estimates of capital losses from sanctions based on the price of oil z 50 dollars a barrel.

According to expert estimates, the overall decrease in gross capital inflow is estimated at about 280 billion dollars over 3.5 years, including about $ 85 billion in direct investments. When this indirect effect of sanctions, their actual distribution at all, and not only to those companies and banks included in the sanctions lists, – results three-quarters of these losses. The reduction of foreign direct investment, reducing opportunities for loans, reducing the capital inflow to the market of public debt increase the immediate effect of sanctions about three times, write Gurvich and Prilepsky.

According to experts, the sanctions affect the flow of capital regardless of the price of oil, however, padini their effect increases, and Vice versa – the economy is suffering under sanctions from the oil shock stronger.

As reported, after removal of odnostoronne and international sanctions against Iran for the first time since November 2003 quotes fell below $ 29 per barrel. While in the US refuse to brand North Dakota Sour, which traditional customers now agree to buy only for a fee, the government is preparing its economy to the price of a barrel of oil Urals in $ 25.

Note, international sanctions, low oil prices and falling rouble threatens Russia’s default. Many experts believe that for the sake of the economy, the Kremlin will be replaced by an aggressive policy of «conciliatory» and start implementing the Minsk agreements, gradually retreating from the Ukrainian Donbass.

Western sanctions and cheap oil will cost the Russian economy 600 billion dollars — economists 05.02.2016

Февраль 5th, 2016 by
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