North Korea and Kim Jong UN are convinced that if they are able to threaten the United States, they thereby constrain any military action against his country by the US or its allies.
This was explained in an interview with «Voice of America», senior researcher of the program of missile defense at the International Institute for strategic studies Michael Ellemann, on the basis of the conclusions which The New York Times stated about a possible delivery of a Ukraine technology of the DPRK.
«I think that we are restrained by the existing North Korea has the ability to level Seoul using artillery. But we, I mean US, let us have recourse to action if the DPRK will act as the aggressor. And it will depend on if she has the ability to directly threaten the United States,» he said.
The expert added that the allied agreement the United States suggest that the threat to South Korea or Japan is the equivalent of a threat to the United States.
«The DPRK in the future will need to conduct additional missile tests over which they are now working to understand how reliable are they and what are their characteristics. They still don’t know work their re-entry into the atmosphere, whether their missiles at all accurate. All that remains to be seen. And the U.S. goal should be to stop the conduct of these flight tests, and eventually ban them and close the nuclear program of the DPRK, and after that go to the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula,» he explained.
Ellemann expressed confidence that the DPRK would need a new test launches of missiles.
«There are many political reasons to carry out more tests. I wonder if they will carry out start in the direction of GUAM as a demonstration of their capabilities as they promised. Most likely, they will send missiles toward the Pacific ocean, because it removes the possibility of false calculations or an incorrect interpretation by the US that the DPRK does. But this rocket will have to fly over Japan, and this they did in 1999, the first year… So I don’t think they would want to do that without serious reasons», – said the expert.
The expert added that with the new engine, the rocket, the DPRK could theoretically reach the US mainland.
«For this reason, there are several tests which held a technical experts. These analyses indicate that if the rocket and capable of reaching the US, then a little bit. But if the rocket is able to reach us in Seattle, it shouldn’t matter whether the rocket to reach Chicago?» he said.
Ellemann added that most analyses take into account the size of the warhead, but it is not known how small a nuclear warhead can produce the DPRK.
«The maximum range of the missiles North Korea is highly dependent on the weight of the warhead. Plus or minus 100 pounds, and have the difference between the fall of the rocket in the ocean and when she reaches the ground. The DPRK expects the working modes of the missiles. That’s why I suspect that the missile, which they feel, is an intermediate and they in the end will try to create a few large rocket, which can carry a greater charge and may also carry a false target, designed to confuse the missile defense system the United States. But it might be their goal for the next three–four–five–seven years, not next year or two,» he concluded.
August 14 edition of the New York Times wrote that the success of the testing of North Korean missiles may be explained by the fact that they are equipped with engines from the factory «Pivdenmash» in the river that is historically connected with the Russian missile production.
Secretary of the national security Council and defense of Ukraine Oleksandr Turchynov called provocation information on the delivery of North Korea Ukrainian missile technology.
The press service of «Yuzhmash» denied delivery of the DPRK rocket engines.
15 Aug expert on military missile technology from the International Institute for strategic studies Michael Ellemann, who referred to The New York Times, said that not told about the involvement of the Ukrainian authorities to supply rocket engines to the DPRK.
The US state Department said the United States «seriously» to the information on the possible supply of engines for the North.
15 August, a source in us intelligence told Reuters that modifications of the Ukrainian RD-250 in North Korea could create with the help of foreign scientists of North Koreans who studied abroad.
On 16 August, President Petro Poroshenko said that in connection with the publication of The New York Times information on the possible use of Ukrainian engines for North Korean missiles Ukraine will conduct a thorough and comprehensive investigation.
We constrain even existing in North Korea the ability to bulldoze Seoul — us expert 16.08.2017