The Russian economy expect 15 years of stagnation

By 2030, the Russian economy will be in stagnation, if not reformed. About this newspaper «Vedomosti» on Monday, February 15, with reference to the forecast of the Ministry of Finance.

According to the calculations Department, while maintaining oil prices at 40 dollars per barrel (in real terms, i.e. when adjusted for inflation) by 2030, the Russian economy will grow by 1-1. 3 percent per year.

While in 2016 is expected to decline 0.8 percent, and in 2017 — the resumption of growth, resulting in real GDP will reach the level of 2014 in three years. In this case, the overall growth of the economy by 2030 will amount to 13 percent, which is equal to the index of the period from 2011 to 2013.

As explained by «Vedomosti», the representative of the Ministry of Finance, that economic development is inertial scenario without structural reforms. According to him, there are scenarios related to the implementation of reforms, and the office finds them more proper for Russia.

As the official said, we are talking about the interior Ministry’s estimates, and official long-term forecast at the moment, no.

However the representative of the Ministry expressed the hope that the most likely target scenario of the Ministry of Finance, which will allow the economy to reach a growth rate of 2-3 percent. According to him, this requires the increase in oil prices to 50 dollars per barrel in real terms for the entire period, but primarily structural changes in the economy, including «improving the return on capital through productivity growth outstripping wage growth, and, as a result, the increase in the share of investment in GDP».

Earlier, the Finance Ministry has estimated the mandatory measures of the new anti-crisis action plan in the economy of the country 600 billion rubles.

And the Ministry of industry and trade of the country is already preparing for the population ration cards.




The Russian economy expect 15 years of stagnation 15.02.2016

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