The national Bank of Ukraine considers it relevant to the current inflation forecast at 12% at the end of this year and 8% at the end of next year, despite the current volatility in the foreign exchange market.
This is stated in the comments of the Deputy head of the NBU Oleg Churia on the situation on the currency market, reports UNIAN.
As noted in comments, to provide this level of inflation will allow some positive for the currency market of factors, including the increase in export revenues due to higher prices for steel and iron ore, as well as from the sale of the new harvest.
«An important factor for the weakening of the exchange rate fluctuations will become the resumption of cooperation with the International monetary Fund, which we expect in the near future. This will ensure the growth of international reserves, and reduces psychological pressure on the hryvnia,» — said Cure.
At the same time, as noted in comments on the state of the currency market in the near future may impact some short-term factors. First, this week’s day in Ukraine on September 5 coincides with the festive holiday in the United States, in connection with which the foreign currency revenues to accounts of Ukrainian banks traditionally are reduced and there is excessive demand for the currency. Second, in early September, in accordance with the developed schedule, temporarily increased the demand for foreign currency to repatriate dividends.
«These factors will have a short impact and will not result in volatility of the hryvnia, which is incompatible with the achievement of the inflation target. The national Bank of Ukraine intends to continue, if necessary, foreign exchange intervention to curb volatility caused by temporary factors, as the hryvnia exchange rate has a significant influence on the level of inflation», — emphasized in the comments.
Also Cure recalled that in August, the regulator resumed the sale of foreign currency on the interbank currency market, including 31 August conducted 4 auctions in which he sold $ 140 million. USA. «The national Bank has all opportunities to further smooth out variations due to building up international reserves during the last five months to the level of 14.1 billion dollars. United States,» said Curi.
As reported, the value of the hryvnia against the dollar from August 10 gradually decreases to 5-10 cents on a daily basis, breaking the mark of 25 UAH/USD, after two months was in the range of 24.7 to 24.9 UAH/USD.
Experts predict fluctuations of the hryvnia in the fall, allowing the devaluation to 27 UAH/USD, in connection with payments on external debts and purchases of natural gas due to uncertainty about the prospects of continuing cooperation with the International monetary Fund.
According to dealers of commercial banks, today, quotes the hryvnia against the U.S. dollar on the interbank currency market continues to decline, settling at 16:00 on the level of 26.80/26,86 UAH/USD, which is 17 cents lower than where it opened.
According to the National Bank, the average weighted exchange rate of hryvnia on the interbank market by this time established at the level of 26,7903 UAH/USD, market participants concluded 402 transactions worth 219,84 million dollars.
Historic low rate was recorded in February of 2015 at the level of 30.01 UAH/USD.
The national Bank does not intend to revise the inflation forecasts 06.09.2016