In Ukraine on February 23 recorded the highest fall of the national currency – one green sold by 27,01 USD. Experts and leading think tanks predict that the national currency will continue to devalue in the coming weeks, the bucks will reach $ 30 USD. Today, together with experts find out, why «losing weight» the hryvnia and when it would stop.
The national Bank (NBU) is not able to stop the devaluation of the hryvnia, believes Executive Director of the Fund of the Blazer Oleg Ustenko.
«The problems that arose – system, the solution of which lies in the plane and the Verkhovna Rada and the Cabinet of Ministers», – says the expert.
At the same time, leading expert of information-analytical center FOREX CLUB in Ukraine Andrey Shevchishin said: «the NBU has the ability to restrain negative, including through market and non-market mechanisms».
Experts name the following reasons for the devaluation of the hryvnia:
The slowdown of cooperation with the IMF;
The contraction of demand in the market due, including adverse external price trends and falling demand;
The shortage of foreign currency.
Ex-Minister of Economics Viktor Suslov says, the private sector has a huge external debt, to repay which is forced to buy foreign currency, which leads to a shortage of dollars in the foreign exchange market.
«The private sector is very large debts that must be repaid this year, the need for redemption of corporate obligations is one of the reasons for the appreciation of the currency. Plus the crisis of the banking system, the continued outflow of foreign currency deposits. Contributes monetary policy restrictions of the national Bank», – said Suslov.
The head of the NBU Valeria Gontareva last week on usetrace with representatives of the European business Association said: «we Have a flexible policy. Every month I go out after the meeting of the monetary Committee and tell you what’s happening. You need to listen. If I say that we have a current account deficit of the balance of payments, it means of course not possible to strengthen. Risks will increase.»
Viktor Suslov noted, the balance of payments of Ukraine at the moment is positive, however, despite this, the hryvnia will continue to devalue.
Oleg Ustenko believes, if negative factors continue, the hryvnia in the near future will exceed $ 30 USD. Thus, according to the economist, for again the bucks were sold for 25 UAH, you must perform at least one of the following conditions:
To resume cooperation with the IMF;
To start to actively pursue structural reforms;
To resolve the conflict in the East of the country;
To solve the political crisis;
Economist Viktor Suslov in his forecast was less optimistic, in his opinion, after a month of «green» will sell for 30 USD, and the course will be periodically strengthened and again to «fall».
«I think that the trend to weakening of the hryvnia will remain in view of the fact that in the country a large foreign currency deficit. With all things considered, I think the course will be to devalue, this does not exclude that in certain periods, especially when the NBU takes the decision to sell currency from its reserves, the exchange rate may stabilize and even slightly increase. In General, the trend of devaluation will continue. Up to 30 hryvnia per dollar in the next month or two,» – said Viktor Suslov.
According to analysts FOREX CLUB, the dollar this week may reach 30 USD.
«This week the rate may fluctuate in the range of 25.8–28 UAH. per dollar on non-cash market, the cash market is 26.5-29 UAH. per dollar,» – said in the information-analytical center.
At Goldman Sachs predict that the national currency rate this year will reach 30 hryvnia per dollar. As told the head of the analytical Department of Concorde Capital Alexander para, in addition to cooperation with international lenders, the hryvnia exchange rate is also affected by steel prices and ore prices on international stock exchanges.
Adversely affected the hryvnia exchange rate:
Falling prices on world commodity markets: wheat for the year fell by 25%, steel – 31%, iron ore – 38%;
The Russian embargo, the blocking of transit through the Russian Federation, of the abolition of the FTA with the CIS (Ukraine has lost 1.1 billion dollars)
«Those pictures, which are now formed, they, unfortunately, do not allow our companies involved in the production of ore and steel, to work with profit. What does it mean? What if it so happens that the prices will continue to fall, some companies will have to stop. Anyway, steel and ores still constitute an important source of foreign exchange earnings in the country», – said the expert.
In the budget for 2016-the year laid such macroeconomic indicators: inflation at 12%, GDP growth of 2%, and the hryvnia exchange rate is 24.1 (early years) and 24.4 UAH/USD (year-end). Last year the budget included a decline in GDP of 4.3% with inflation of 13.1%. The calculations were carried out based on the exchange rate of UAH 17/USD, which is not provided by the NBU and the experts. However, in February Parliament approved the edits of the government: the expected inflation rate has increased to 26%.
Experts explain, to revise the hryvnia exchange rate and the inflation rate are likely in the budget for this year. As a result of hryvnia devaluation imported goods become more expensive, and, as noted by Oleg Ustenko, almost a third of the consumer basket of Ukrainians – export, consequently, the «thinner» the hryvnia will lead to price increases above the planned indicators.
The official rate of hryvnia to the dollar at the end of 2015 amounts to 24 UAH/USD. That is, in the final exchange rate of the hryvnia in the past year fell 8.24 USD, or 1.5 times, compared with a final figure of the previous year – UAH 15.77/USD.
Average annual official rate of hryvnia to Euro amounted 24,23 UAH/USD. Thus, against the Euro the hryvnia fell 8,51 USD, or 1.5 times. The final official rate of hryvnia against Euro in 2015 was $ 26,22 UAH/USD., and against the Euro the hryvnia on the outcome rate fell by 6,99 UAH, or 1.4 times.
As reported, Gontareva the reasons for the decline of the hryvnia, in addition to such seasonal factors as the decline in business activity in November, as well as payments from the Treasury account, called the political instability in the country.
Experts believe that the hryvnia may fall to 30 per dollar and strengthened on average by around 27.
We will remind, in February of last year, the official hryvnia exchange rate to the dollar set at the historical low of 30.01 per hryvnia per dollar. The last time the official hryvnia exchange rate weakened.
The hryvnia to a record falling: what’s going on and when will it stop 24.02.2016