The decision of the Stockholm arbitration on the dispute «Naftogaz» and «Gazprom» carries risks for Ukraine and its gas market in the near future, wrote in a blog on the «LigaBusinessInform» member of the Supervisory Board of the Institute of energy strategies Yuri Korolchuk.
The Naftogaz of Ukraine demanded compensation for overpayment in the cost of gas in the period 2011-2015 amounting to $14 billion, the Court did not satisfy this requirement. Moreover, it is actually the court’s decision means that in the period from 2011 to 2015 Ukraine paid the reasonable market price of gas, which at that time was with the Kharkiv discount of $350-430″, – he wrote.
The expert noted that the Stockholm arbitration has obliged «Naftogaz» to pay $2 billion debt for the gas supplied, which is a direct financial loss of «Naftogaz».
«Naftogaz of Ukraine» and demanded to abolish the condition of «take or pay». The court did not satisfy this requirement and determined the annual volume of natural gas contract at the level of 5 billion m3, and the obligatory purchase («take or pay») is about 4 billion m3″, he continued.
According to Korolchuk, a significant reduction in the amount of mandatory gas purchases is an absolute achievement.
«On the other hand, Gazprom has no obligation to sell more than 5 billion m3. And, accordingly, the other imports Ukraine will still buy the schemes of reverse and pay for gas. Annual import growth in Ukraine could reach in subsequent years, roughly at the level 11-15 bln. m3», – he stressed.
The expert added that Ukraine had the opportunity to undertake re-gas, however, to exercise this right will be difficult, because the EU has developed a group of gas suppliers.
«Ukraine received a reduction of gas prices in relation to prices of European gas hubs (currently $220-230). But, as has been said, at this price you can buy only 5 billion m3, or 30-40% of the needs of Ukraine’s imports. The same «Gazprom» provides most of the European companies,» he continued.
Korolchuk said that the decision of the Stockholm arbitration suggests that contracts should not be governed by the Ukrainian legislation.
«This means that the decision of the Antimonopoly Committee of Ukraine about the «penalty» against «Gazprom» more than $ 170 billion ($6 billion) is likely to be canceled. The key conclusion of the decision of the Stockholm arbitration (which avoids talking «Naftogaz») is its negative impact on the gas market of Ukraine. As such, the decision of the court of Stockholm leads to the rapid squeezing of Ukraine with the EU gas market, reducing the role of Ukraine as a transit country and the strengthening of the role of intermediaries in the gas market of Ukraine», – he warned.
According to experts, the decision of the Stockholm arbitration gives «to Gazprom» without any conflicts to complete the process of minimization of relations with «Naftogaz». Russian company is happy with the verdict.
«The decision of the Stockholm arbitration in this form does not give chances for Ukraine as a transit country and as a state buyer of gas… Ukraine will become a platform for the trade and transit of gas to European traders and firms on the one hand, and Russia», – he concluded.
December 22 «Naftogaz Ukraine» declared victory over «Gazprom» on gas supply contract on all contentious issues. In the Ukrainian company said that the requirements of the Russian monopoly’s terms «take or pay» in the amount of $56 billion completely rejected.
According to «Naftogaz» required annual volume of gas reduced more than 10 times. Stockholm arbitration Tribunal ruled that Naftogaz should not have to pay for gas, which «Gazprom» ostensibly set in the occupied Donbass.
In «Gazprom» stated that the Stockholm arbitration court recognized the applicable basic provisions of the contract for the supply of gas from Russia to Ukraine and met most of the demands of the Russians on payment of the delivered gas.
The company argued that the final decision the court obliged «Naftogaz» to pay the amount of arrears in the amount of $2 billion and interest for late payment (0,03% for each day from 22 December 2017).
The expert of the energy market: the decision of the court of Stockholm leads to the rapid squeezing of Ukraine with the EU gas market 26.12.2017