Stratfor: the West and Russia nearing compromise on Donbas

The U.S. and Russia may close to reaching an understanding regarding the conflict in Eastern Ukraine. This is stated in the report of the American private intelligence analysis company Stratfor, reports Ukrainian Pravda.

«The United States and Russia may move to an understanding regarding the conflict in Ukraine. In recent weeks, diplomatic activity between the us and Russian officials resumed with breakneck speed. There are rumors of a political reshuffle in separatist-held parts of Donbass. Ukrainian and Russian media even reported that now we are working on a «secret deal», which will be a compromise agreement on the political and military demands of the separatists and Moscow on the one hand, and Kiev and its Western partners on the other,» reads the report.

The report States that «new life» talks can give a sharp fall in oil prices, a further weakening of the Russian economy and the Russian involvement in the Syrian conflict.

«Big deal in Ukraine is still far from conclusion, but there may be compromises on those issues that were previously not discussed», — say the experts of Stratfor.

However, the report stresses that there are many reasons to apply sceptical about these rumours. Kiev should not expect Moscow significant concessions.

«The Kremlin has traditionally puts its own national interests above the security of its economic development. The President of Russia Vladimir Putin knows that the West’s geopolitical concessions from the former leader of the Soviet Union Mikhail Gorbachev in exchange for economic aid led to the collapse of the USSR. Putin also realizes that if he goes to considerable concessions on Ukraine without concessions from Kiev, it may be more detrimental to his political position than an economic crisis,» the report said.

It is also reported that Ukraine is also not much willingness to compromise, because compromises with the separatists and Russia can result in a conflict with extreme right-wing groups in the country.

The report notes that the latest talks between the West and Russia was the holding of local elections in the occupied territories.

«The holding of local elections in Donetsk and Lugansk can reduce acute political differences regarding the status and autonomy of the region. However, for the elections Russia and the separatists should cooperate, go for a full ceasefire, withdrawal of heavy weapons from the contact line and the provision of access for OSCE observers to the entire combat zone,» said analysts.

The report notes that if Russia will fulfill these conditions, the West can seriously think about the lifting of sanctions with Russia.

Recall that in his report during the meeting of the Committee on the Armed forces of the United States Senate Director of National intelligence James Clapper said that despite serious problems in the economy, in 2016, Moscow will continue an aggressive influence on Ukraine with the purpose of inhibition of its European integration, and will try to widen the circle of allies among neighbors in the Eurasian region.

«Events in Ukraine have intensified visible intentions of Moscow to increase its presence in the region to prevent the possible change of regimes in former Soviet republics, as well as to accelerate the transition to a multipolar world in which Russia would be the undisputed hegemon in Eurasia», — stated in the report of the chief of Nacrisferi USA.

Earlier in the forecast of the American private intelligence analysis company Stratfor stressed that the war in the Donbass will not end in 2016, although fighting in the region will be less intense.

Stratfor: the West and Russia nearing compromise on Donbas 11.02.2016

Февраль 11th, 2016 by
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