The ruling team in the Kremlin trying to make the government their property «in the infinite time dimension», but only increasingly undermined its foundations. This was written in the column for «Radio Liberty» Russian political analyst Lilia Shevtsova.
«The subject of power, monopolize it undermines their own position. In short, shooting themselves in the foot. And it may get to the temple!… The survival of the modern Russian autocracy is determined by three factors: the ability of the authorities to legitimize themselves; the willingness of the elites to observe loyalty in relation to Personification of power; the ability of the system to use the West in order to support the viability of the state, which can not only modernize yourself but also to ensure the status quo,» he listed it.
According to the analyst, the mood of society depend on how this «triad», but the Kremlin has refused to legitimize itself through elections.
«As shown by the recent municipal elections in Moscow (and not only in the capital), the government is trying to make people forget about the elections as if they were not! This is a trivial way to achieve victory due to the low turnout and the electorate dependent on the state. Presidential elections will require a higher turnout, but the elimination of competition, and strict measures to ensure the desired result. In both cases, the Kremlin is destroying the only thing at its disposal the means to obtain the broad consent of the people on their right to manage,» she said.
I noticed that unlike the USSR, the Kremlin can not suggest an idea which would justify his authority, and legitimation through a return to the monarchy has no support even among supporters of President Vladimir Putin, because thinking about who in your family the President may delegate the power, «will certainly cause his fans mixed feelings.»
«The government itself, is increasingly resorting to repression, thereby recognizing that does not believe in the possibility to achieve obedience without suppression. We have the power, which has great difficulty with the justification of their right to unlimited rule,» she said.
The analyst added that the support of the autocracy elites is based on the deal, according to which in exchange for loyalty the Kremlin guarantees their welfare and security.
«The reduction of public resources force the Kremlin to reduce the rents for the political class. The need to respond to public discontent needs to present to the people the sacred victim. The higher the degree of dissatisfaction, the higher the status of the sacred victims, the more they required. Hence become regular arrests of governors and security forces. But the willingness of the authorities to give at the mercy of the representatives of that class destroys the mechanism of his loyalty,» she continued.
According to Shevtsova, after the arrest of one of the leading Ministers Alexei Ulyukayev even the higher echelons of power may not feel safe.
«Instead of peace, based on clear signs, in politics there comes a time in the jungle. And on the horizon looms another nuisance: if you become hot, the Personification will be forced to do something that did all of the media autocracy, is to appeal to people through the head of the ruling class. Confirmation of the sincerity of the appeal will require a massive cleansing obese the ruling class; it is not known who will go under the knife,» she said.
The analyst also noted that the Russian system has always existed through the use of the resources of Western civilization.
«If during communism the system was able to talk to internal mobilization and partial isolation now return to this survival mechanism is impossible. It’s not even that people are not willing to share the fate of North Korea. To isolate not willing the Russian elite have integrated themselves into Western society. But the introduction of anti-Kremlin sanctions regime, especially the us sanctions, which threaten translated to the West of the state and the assets of the Russian political class threaten to leave him without his pants. Caught off guard, the elite is forced to think about the extent to which the current power meets its interests,» she said.
Shevtsova added that immediate threats to the ruling of the higher tier yet. However, the process of demoralization of power.
«We have the opportunity to observe not just the depletion of resources, the power of the Corporation. This is about more: the government, trying to survive, undermines the foundations of its existence. The Kremlin manages to maintain the impression of stability only because of the weakness of the Russian political and intellectual classes, confusion of society and the crisis of Western civilization. But Kremlin strategists have succeeded in narrowing their field of maneuver. They managed to awaken the anxiety even within the Kremlin courtyard. Even more successful the Kremlin opened Russia against the world», she concluded.
15 Nov 2016 Sledkom the Russian Federation announced the arrest of the speaker. According to Russian investigators, the official received from Sechin $2 million for the provision of a positive assessment, which allowed Rosneft to buy the state package of shares of «Bashneft». The speaker refused to accept the blame.
During the trial, he said it was a provocation of a bribe by the FSB.
The court released transcript of conversation Sechin and speaker. Context of the conversation implies that Sechin at parting gave the guest a basket with sausage. Ulyukayev argued in court that the head of «Rosneft» gave him a package of wine. Sechin described the announcement in court of the content of his conversation with Ulyukaev «professional cretinism».
Shevtsova: the Kremlin shoots itself in the foot. And it may get in the temple! 25.09.2017