The current President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko, the leader of the «Batkivshchyna» Yulia Tymoshenko and leader of the Radical party Oleg Lyashko are the top three in electoral preferences of Ukrainians, if presidential elections were held in mid-February.
As the results of a survey of Kyiv international Institute of sociology (KIIS), if one assumes that presidential elections are held in mid-February, with the highest support among the adult population of the territories that are now controlled by the Ukrainian government, Poroshenko receives (9% in relation to all respondents). 2-ranked Tymoshenko (6.8%), the 3rd — Lyashko (4.6 per cent).
Another 4.2% of the population would vote for the mayor of Lviv Andrey Sadovyi, 3.8 per cent for the head of the faction «Opposition bloc» Yury Boiko, 3,5% — for the leader of the party «Civic position» Anatoly Gritsenko, and 2.6% for the ex-leader of the party «Right sector» Dmitry Yarosh. For all other candidates in General are ready to vote with 5.1%. Not decided on a candidate for the post of President of 27.5% would come to vote for 25.1%.
At the same time, if those who have not decided on a candidate, and those who want to vote against all, do not come to elections in the voting took part about 40% of all the voters, and the vote was follows: in the territory controlled by the Ukrainian authorities, among the adult residents, who decided on a candidate, a further 22.8% would support Poroshenko, 17,1% — Tymoshenko, 11,5% — Lyashko. Another 10.7% of the population would vote for a Garden, 9,6% — for Boyko, 8,8% — for Hrytsenko and 6.5% for Yarosh, former Vice Prime Minister (in the government of Mykola Azarov) Serhiy Tihipko — a 3.2%, and for the leader of «Svoboda» Oleg Tyagnibok is 1.9%. Other candidates in General are ready to support 6,9%.
KIIS conducted the survey in areas not controlled by Ukrainian authorities (respondents 112 respondents). In the case of modeling the situation of presidential elections on the territory of Ukraine without Crimea, that is, including on the temporarily uncontrolled territories of Donetsk and Lugansk regions, among the population that decided what candidate to vote for, Poroshenko would support 22.6% of the electorate, Tymoshenko is 16.7%, Lyashko — 11,3%, Boyko and 10.8%, Garden — 10.4 per cent.
The KIIS poll was conducted from 5 to 16 February 2016 by personal interview (interviewed 2,020 respondents living in 110 settlements of all Ukrainian oblasts except Crimea, on stochastic selection, representative for the population of Ukraine over 18 years.
In the Luhansk region survey was conducted only on the territories controlled by the Ukrainian authorities in Donetsk region the survey was carried out in the territories temporarily not controlled by Ukrainian authorities.
Statistical sampling error (with probability 0.95 and at design-effect of 1.5) does not exceed 3,3% for indicators close to 50%, 2,8% — for indicators close to 25%, 2,0% — for indicators close to 10%, 1,4% — for indicators close to 5%, 0,7% for indicators close to 1 or 99%.
Recall, Poroshenko previously announced he would not run for a second term, instead planning to work with the authorities of the European Union.
In the first round of presidential elections on 25 may 2014, Petro Poroshenko (54,43%) defeated Tymoshenko (12,90%), winning 9 241 662 votes, while the leader of the «Batkivshchyna» — 2 190 822.
And in the second round of the 2010 presidential elections, Tymoshenko lost to Victor Yanukovych only 3,48% of the vote. At the same time, Tymoshenko has not recognized their defeat, declared mass falsifications «in Ukraine for more than 1 million votes on different technologies» and tried to appeal the election results in court, demanding a recount on the most problem sites.
Poroshenko, Tymoshenko and Lyashko ahead of others in the presidential rating — KIIS 01.03.2016