Politico. Adrian Karatnycky: Ukraine: to descend into the abyss and get out

«This and last week’s ruling political elite of Ukraine did, like, what she does best, acting irresponsible,» writes the article for publication Politico Andrian Karatnycky, senior research fellow of the Atlantic Council, co-Director of the program for Ukraine in Europe Initiative.

«It seems that Ukraine’s leaders were willing to plunge the country into a potential political crisis at a time when Ukraine has problems with hard currency reserves, economic indicators are weak, but in front of the Russian aggression in the East of the country there are signs that violence has become tougher», says the article.

According to the author, the impetus for the crisis was the dissatisfaction with Prime Minister Yatsenyuk. «Ministers-reformers murmured against his imperious style and tight control over the sluggish pace of reforms. Allies of President Poroshenko reacted no better — they say, they besieged Ministerial requests for special services in the interests of specific economic forces and demanded new patronage positions with powers that play a sensitive role in the economy,» the article says.

It seemed that on Tuesday the party of Poroshenko will win. But she failed to gather in Parliament enough votes to send Yatsenyuk.

«What happened? Apparently, only a week ago, Poroshenko was determined to get rid of Yatsenyuk, who as Prime Minister has slowed the movement toward reform, often resorted to favoritism and provided key rents force businessmen-oligarchs,» writes carat diamond.

«However, reliable sources in Western capitals and Kiev confirmed that the leaders of the United States and European countries treated this plan disapprovingly and brought to the Ukrainian President two urgent requests: 1) Include in the Cabinet more independent of professionals and reformers; 2) to avoid a collapse of the government and new elections,» he says.

Western leaders organized for the Ukrainian anti-crisis assistance in the amount of 27.5 billion dollars. They are «shareholders» who have invested their resources in Ukraine’s success. «They said Poroshenko: if at the highest levels of the Ukrainian government assumed the changes, Poroshenko must ensure that such changes will provide stability,» says the author.

«Simply put, there will be no new infusion of financial assistance who are in dire need of the Ukrainian economy in early April. Western leaders have put forward these demands not because support Yatsenyuk, and because I know that the period of political uncertainty could undermine support for further sanctions against Russia», — said in the article. «Why our economies to make sacrifices for the sake of Ukraine, when its leaders unwilling to make economic sacrifices,» said the author in Brussels an unnamed specialist in the EU’s relations with Ukraine.

Apparently, the persuasion worked, and Poroshenko as the author says, «bought to the Prime Minister six months» — only then will be possible a new vote on his resignation. «During these six months, must be received two additional tranches from the IMF and the EU, probably in June will decide to extend sanctions against Russia,» the article says.

«Business and kleptocratic elite followed this scenario. Seeing as after the Russian invasion in Donbas and annexation of Crimea economic prosperity of Ukraine collapsed, the Ukrainian business elite, defending himself, tries to extort all the rest of the hryvnia by means of preferred rates and rents. But she is also aware that it would be folly to sacrifice the mainstay of economic stability of Ukraine — West,» the author writes.

Karatnycky reports that on Monday, watched «surrealistic discussion» on the air talk show in Kyiv. Deputies from three parties entering into ruling coalition, called for the resignation of the government.

«All the speakers wanted the country jumped into the political abyss, not knowing where it will land. But no one could even begin to answer who will be or may become the next Prime Minister and going to be divided between the Ministry of indeterminate configuration of the eight political groups represented in Parliament», — said in the article.

According to the author, if Poroshenko’s plan failed, in Ukraine a few months was dominated by uncertainty prior to early elections, which would benefit the populist and the opposition.

«Moreover, such an election would give the impetus for the political resurrection of Mikheil Saakashvili. In stay by the President of Georgia, he has shown authoritarian tendencies, which now echoed by irresponsible accusations and demagogic anti-corruption rhetoric coming from his mouth,» writes the author.

Be that as it may, Poroshenko has sent in the resignation of attorney General. According to the author, this opens up the possibility of more active clampdown on corruption.

Karatnycky recommends: «Need «big deal» with the ruling parliamentary coalition, that among the Ministers became more professionals and technocrats, having close ties with key political players in the country. The President shall arrange to have his business partner and close friend Igor Kononenko quit politics. This malicious figure, it is considered that he stands in the center of the entrenched practices of rent-seeking behavior».

The author recalls: in 2005, disagreements between President Yushchenko and Prime Minister Tymoshenko have created the conditions for the retreat of the reformers and strengthen a corrupt government. «This time there are six months to prove that there is a chance to enter into a compromise and avoid falling into a political abyss,» he concludes.

Translation InoPressa




Politico. Adrian Karatnycky: Ukraine: to descend into the abyss and get out 17.02.2016

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Февраль 17th, 2016 by
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