Today in Paris is scheduled to meet presidents of Ukraine, Germany, France and Russia in the format «Channel four». The main issue on the agenda, of course, is the implementation of the Minsk agreements. It is not surprising that the Russian side sent an official request to Kiev on a bilateral meeting of Russian President with the President of Ukraine. One can only assume that Vladimir Putin would meet with Petro Poroshenko, to try to impose a «freezing» of the conflict in the Donbass. After all, the attempt to negotiate with U.S. President Barack Obama on the Ukrainian question, a few days ago, ended in failure for the GDP, because of what he got back from new York anger.
In parallel these days in Minsk the Trilateral contact group managed at last to sign the agreement on the withdrawal of weapons with a caliber less than 100 mm 15 km from the contact line from each side. Under the agreement signed by the OSCE representative Martin Sajdik, the representative of Ukraine Leonid Kuchma and the special representative of Russia Azamat kulmuhametov. Thus was realized the initiative of the President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko proposed to them earlier in the continuation of the Minsk agreements. It is not surprising that the official Kiev believes that the parties ‘ agreement is «one of the diplomatic victories of Ukraine».
OSCE Chairman Ivica Dacic immediately welcomed the agreement, «is a good sign of the will of all to continue the peace process and should provide additional impetus to the strengthening of the ceasefire regime».
According to Martin Sajdik, the agreement provides for first discharging the cannons and tanks, and then another, and mortars in two stages. So, the first stage will commence two days after the full ceasefire and complete within 15 days and the second phase will last 24 days. To control the diversion of weapons by monitoring and verification mission of the OSCE. In the headquarters of the ATO added that the first phase will begin with the Luhansk region, and then this procedure will carry into other areas that go along the separation line.
Defense Minister Stepan Poltorak said yesterday that Ukraine has already started work on the preparation of the withdrawal of weapons. At the same time, the Minister urged subordinates not to relax and be ready for any eventuality, «to be Honest, I highly doubt that Russia in the person of President Putin renounced aggressive intentions towards Ukraine.»
One of leaders of fighters of Denis Pushilin, in Minsk was represented by the occupied Donbass, believes that the signing of the «forced agreement» on the withdrawal of equipment calibre less than 100 mm means the end of the war. Leaders of the self-proclaimed «DNR» and «LNR» Alexander Zakharchenko and Igor Plotnitskiy signed the document the day before yesterday. However yesterday inadequate Zakharchenko declared the termination of the abduction of arms with calibre less than 100 mm. the Leader of terrorists «imagined» that Ukraine allegedly fired Donetsk yesterday morning, writes Ivan Leonov in the article «First the tanks and guns» in the newspaper «Ukraina Moloda».
Since the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine, according to the UN, has killed about 8 thousand people, including 2 thousand of our soldiers, the infrastructure of the Eastern regions was severely damaged and his home has left almost 1.5 million people. But despite this sporadic attacks, the relative calm in the Donbass will last for more than a month. For example, over the past day militants staged just three 15-minute shelling of the APU from grenade launchers and small arms. However, neither the locals nor the experts in a short truce did not believe.
The leader of the group «Information resistance» Dmitry tymchuk real signs of the world does not see. «The real world can be the withdrawal of heavy weapons. But our intelligence reports that it is not given, and is at the forefront of nearly all areas, — says Tymchuk. — If where-that something was given, in order to introduce new units — it’s just rotation. Even the OSCE is fixed. What sense then to talk about the armament of less than 100 mm?».
However, according to military expert Alexey Arestovich, the fact that heavy weapons fighters stand on positions, does not mean that they will be ready to apply it. «Russia can’t afford two wars at the same time. Now on Donbass the situation was deadlocked, and nothing serious fighting there impossible to achieve. So Russia is trying to act effectively in Syria — to be bartered away Ukraine to Syria, communicating with the West. Therefore, on Donbass the Russian Federation now really need a de-escalation,» — said the arestovich.
In turn, Professor of political science at the Kyiv Mohyla Academy Oleksiy Haran adds: the signs of real de-escalation can only appear at the negotiations «Channel four» in Paris. «Any weapons you can quickly return. Everything that happens fits in with the strategy of Putin: he seeks to show its peacefulness, to obtain the lifting of sanctions. And the real solution to the conflict is still far» — said Haran.
Even if the Minsk agreements really work, and the militants will keep your word and take all weapons from the contact line, RF still will not abandon plans to destabilize the situation in Ukraine, experts say. «I admit that the militants are likely to take weapons, and in the East established a real lull, but further developments will depend on whether Putin negotiate with the West. If you do not agree, we will again try to do something in the Donbass, — says the arestovich. And in the quiet period of the RF will still continue to create havoc inside Ukraine country: another explosion in Odessa, Kharkov, using discontent of the population, the organization of the parliamentary crisis».
«Now the representatives of the militants set their sights on the political process: some groups supersede others, there is an active preparation for pseudoliberal. This is done in order to legalize their organization. If Kiev will never accept this and will not make decisions contrary to the interests of the country, there could be an escalation of the conflict», — concluded Dmitry tymchuk. This writes Arthur Gore in the article «the Chances for peace in the Donbas: reality or Putin’s strategy» in the newspaper «Today».
The President of Russia Vladimir Putin considers that before the end of the war in the Donbas is still quite far away. However, he again made a number of statements in the Wake of its own policy of non-recognition of the determining role of Russia in resolving the conflict.
«Until the resolution, so far away, but there are things that give us confidence that the crisis can be overcome, and most importantly, no shooting today, he said.
The Russian leader stressed that the main condition for the achievement of any compromise is a direct dialogue.
«We expect that the dialogue between the unrecognized republics and the Kyiv authorities will still be positive,» he said.
Putin also called for demining of the territories involved in the conflict, however, prior to this, he said, must be first to cease fire.
«There cannot be defused, since there are shells falling», — said the President of the Russian Federation.
The Russian leader also expressed hope that the agreement about the withdrawal of weapons with a caliber smaller than 100 mm will allow to stop all the attacks in the Donbass, reported in an article «Putin warned that before the end of the war in the Donbass is still far away» in the newspaper «Facts and comments».
That heavy machinery will disperse in different directions at 30 miles, the tripartite group agreed yesterday in Minsk. Both in Donetsk and in Kiev immediately said, this is a significant step towards ending the war. And civilians optimism increased. On posts lined up in huge queues to enter, and every night in high-rise buildings, more and more lit Windows.
However, deviate technology has not even started. The General staff said: according to the agreements, the start of the scheduled withdrawal only after two days of complete silence.
Meanwhile, now and one, and the other side say: how can, keep the silence mode. Large bets on the ceasefire and the subsequent withdrawal of technicians, and European diplomats.
But the line of demarcation has given a green light to the withdrawal of decided like and not wait. They say, don’t shoot, and that’s fine. Locals tell: one week after an undeclared lull in Donetsk has become much more than people.
«We’ve gone through several «cease-fires», followed by great tragedy and even greater fire — shared donchanka Nataliya Severance. — So now people are focused not on the signed papers, and on their feelings and impressions. The week was quiet, and started to return. Now even in traffic jams and at bus stops during peak hours, crowds, transport complete».
That there will not be shoot in Donetsk until the end will not believe. Say, for silence and peace to get used to, but the stability of the situation it doesn’t add up, write Veronika Sborshikov, Alice Kirilenko in the article «Residents of Donetsk: «Silence is such that it seems as if the world stopped» in the newspaper «Komsomolskaya Pravda in Ukraine».
October 2. Press review. The chances of a truce 02.10.2015