NBU expects to resume cooperation with the IMF with a shift of the schedule of financing for the quarter ahead

The national Bank expects to resume cooperation with the International monetary Fund, but it predicts the shift of the schedule of official financing for the quarter ahead. This was reported on the website of the NBU with reference to the discussion of the updated macroeconomic forecasts and recent changes to the monetary policy of the regulator with the participation of external experts and market participants.

The national Bank says the strengthening of the hryvnia to the dollar in April by 3.3%
The balance of payments deficit rose to 859 million dollars

The national Bank recalled that he had retained the growth forecast of Ukraine’s real GDP by 1.1% in 2016 and 3% in 2017, as well as the inflation forecast at 12% at the end of the current year and 8% at the end of next year.

According to the regulator, relevant to the forecast remain assumptions on the situation in the East of Ukraine, the grain yield and the inflow of deposits in banks.

At the same time, the NBU expects that commodity prices will be higher than expected in the previous forecast and the updated forecast based on more optimistic assumptions regarding the growth economies of China and the Russian Federation.

As reported, the IMF approved the program of crediting Ukraine’s economy using the mechanism of the eff (Extended Fund Facility – EFF) for a total volume of 17.5 billion dollars. for a period of 4 years in March 2015. The first tranche under the new program in the amount of $ 5 billion. Ukraine received March 13, the second at $ 1.7 billion. – August 4, 2015.

Currently, the second revision of the cooperation program. Ukraine and IMF discuss a wide range of issues in the second revision, which includes various aspects of monetary, banking, anti-corruption policy, pension reform and privatization. The result of revision should be approved by a Memorandum between the Ukrainian authorities and the IMF Board of Directors.

The Minister of Finance of Ukraine Alexander danyluk told reporters that Ukraine is ready for the arrival of a mission from the International monetary Fund, and Deputy Prime Minister Stepan Kubiv noted that until may 1, Ukraine must develop a specific plan to operate the Fund in the near future.

In late April, the Prime Minister of Ukraine Vladimir Groisman said that the government conducts an active dialogue with the IMF and will soon unveil the new beacons of the reform program.

The national Bank says the strengthening of the hryvnia to the dollar in April by 3.3%

The exchange rate of the hryvnia to the US dollar in April compared with the beginning of the month rose 3.3%, according to macroeconomic and monetary review on the website of the National Bank of Ukraine. By NBU estimates, in the result of the strengthening of the national currency the rate of devaluation of the hryvnia to the US dollar at the official exchange rate since the beginning of the year, in January-April fell to 5.6% from 9.4% recorded in January-March.

The regulator noted that in April continued the trend of strengthening of the hryvnia against the background of growth of foreign currency supply and weakening demand, including due to the stabilization of the political situation.

The stabilization of the exchange market allowed the NBU to continue to buy foreign currency to replenish international reserves and as of April 25, the volume of net purchases of foreign currency by the regulator amounted to 401 million dollars. USA.

As reported, the exchange rate of hryvnia to the U.S. dollar in March has appreciated by 3% in January-March decreased by 9.4%.

Historic low of the national currency rate of Ukraine in relation to the U.S. dollar, reached in February 2015, is 30.01 UAH/USD.

The balance of payments deficit rose to 859 million dollars

The deficit of the consolidated balance of payments of Ukraine in March 2016 rose by $ 859 million, and this deterioration is largely due to the first payment of the coupon income of 473 million dollars on new government bonds issued by the government in November 2015. This is evidenced by the data of the National Bank of Ukraine.

The controller recalls that in March of last year the deficit amounted to 308 million dollars, in February — $ 74 million deficit and January 2016 was completed with a surplus of $ 120 million. In addition, the current account deficit of the balance of payments in March reached $ 448 million, compared with $ 251 million in February and $ 228 million in March of last year.

NBU explains that the rate of decline in exports increased to 15.9% from 12% in February, while the rate of decline of imports slowed to 6.2% from 8.8% in February.

In General, the first quarter of the current year the current account deficit amounted to 842 million dollars, or 5.3% of GDP, which is more than two times higher than in the first quarter of 2015 — $ 429 million (2.4% of GDP).

Even worse with the consolidated balance of payments: January-March-2016, the deficit was equal to $ 813 million compared to a surplus 2,537 billion dollars in January-March-2015.

NBU expects to resume cooperation with the IMF with a shift of the schedule of financing for the quarter ahead 04.05.2016

Май 4th, 2016 by
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