National Bank worsened the forecast for the current year, GDP has improved — inflation

The national Bank of Ukraine has lowered its forecast for the country’s economy for the current year, expecting a fall in GDP of 11.6%, whereas previously forecast a decline of 9.5%. This was reported on the website of the regulator.

According to the data, the deterioration of the forecast due to the lack of significant progress in restoring control over the ATO zone, the deteriorating terms of trade for Ukraine, a more significant decline of exports to Russia, tight fiscal and monetary policy. At the same time, the NBU expects a resumption of growth in real GDP per annum in 2016 and expects GDP growth of 2.4%.

At the same time, the NBU has improved the Outlook for inflation and expects the slowdown in consumer inflation to 44% at end-2015 and 12% by the end of 2016. Improved prognosis due to the relative stability in the foreign exchange market and the subsequent reduction of the residual effects of the devaluation of the hryvnia. This also facilitates holding fairly tight monetary policy, lower prices on global food and commodity markets and weak economic activity.

As reported, the fall of Ukraine’s GDP in the second quarter of 2015 slowed to 14.6% in annual terms, after falling by 17.2% in the first quarter.

The Cabinet of Ministers considers three scenarios of development of economy of Ukraine in 2015, according to which the fall in GDP is expected to average from 11.9% to 5.5%.

According to the International monetary Fund, European Bank for reconstruction and development and world Bank, Ukraine’s GDP in 2015 will fall by 9%.

National Bank worsened the forecast for the current year, GDP has improved — inflation 02.10.2015

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Октябрь 2nd, 2015 by
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