The coming to power of Donald trump and the upcoming elections in France and Germany may result in the lifting of sanctions against Moscow, but it may present a risk to the stability of Europe, writes in Le Monde, an expert on Russia and Ukraine Laurent Chamontin.
«The lifting of sanctions imposed on Russia in response to its intervention in Ukraine, came to threat status not a serious story on this subject for a presidential candidate in France can say what he pleases, with only one goal — to stay on the front page of the newspaper. Meanwhile, we are talking about the safety of the French, even if they have not yet seen» — says the author.
«Imagine what apparently will become the world after the election of Donald trump: the Europeans will say goodbye with events in Georgia and in Ukraine since 2008; they will give Vladimir Putin a «zone of influence», covering the territory of the former USSR, and the lifting of sanctions, to enjoy the benefits. Will that improve the prospects for security on the continent, given that this «zone of influence» is definitely closer to our borders than Syria? The answer is simple: no,» — emphasizes the author.
«First of all, put that man in the Kremlin will have legitimacy in order to stabilize the Ukraine, where he wreaked havoc for three years, is simply ridiculous, — is spoken further. — Putin has lost Ukraine for a long time, because in the face of Viktor Yanukovich has relied on a very bad horse. And he did it because he is a representative of the same type of oligarchic States inefficient and thoroughly corrupt. Two peas in a pod».
«And this issue will not be marginalized just because the Western countries will lose interest in him. In the case of an assignment of the «zone of influence», there is a perspective of the actual split of Ukraine in the interests of the Alliance of Moscow and several Ukrainian oligarchs,» says Samonte.
«Ukraine will become a zone of chaos, the population of which the majority is hostile to the Kremlin and that Putin will not be able to control or to develop: in fact, he is the head of the aggressive country, which represents only 3% of world GDP. As for Ukraine, its territory is more than the French and a population of 45 million people is a different scale than that of Abkhazia», — stated in the article.
«Such a scenario is quite plausible, and it will inevitably provoke consequences in the form of illegal trade, the flow of refugees or clandestine immigration to Europe, is already overloaded due to the instability of its South flank,» writes Samonte.
«By the way, the question of stabilization also occurs in Syria, in line with the now likely scenario of strengthening Bashar al-Assad shouldn’t imagine that the Kremlin would show the same zeal to restore what he showed to destruction, — he simply has no funds for it,» writes the author.
«In Georgia, Russian pressure on the pipeline, intended to transport Caspian oil will only intensify,» predicts the expert.
«It remains to see how the words of Donald trump that NATO might not come to the aid of the Baltic States, impact on destabilization of these countries and reduce the reliability of the primary organization for European security», — says the author.
«It should be emphasized that stability in the former Soviet Union is the most important goal for the whole of Europe — this is the main idea of sanctions. At a time when, it seems, formed the Russian-American oligarchic internationals, France and its European partners for its independence as soon as possible to get used to the trips to Washington and lobbying. The lack of hardness will lead to the demise of the continent and its public institutions,» insists Samonte.
Le Monde. Europe must prevent the lifting of sanctions against Russia 04.01.2017