From the beginning of the year a number of important meetings on the subject of the settlement of the conflict in the Donbas: Boris Gryzlov met with Petro Poroshenko, Barack Obama has held talks with Vladimir Putinand Vladislav Surkov – Victoria Nulland.
«The first day after the diversion of weapons to start a dialogue on the modalities of conducting local elections in accordance with Ukrainian legislation and the law of Ukraine «On temporary order of local government in certain districts of Donetsk and Lugansk regions», – stated in the 4th paragraph of the agreement.
By the way, the content of the law on the special status of Donbass is provided in the notes to the Minsk agreements. When the law enters into force, Ukraine will ensure that the participants «events on certain territories of Donetsk and Lugansk regions» are exempt from criminal liability. In addition, the rights of the parties «events on certain territories», which had previously supported the so-called «Republic» is protected by law.
According to article 4 of the law, every resident of the territory with «special status» has the right to choose the language of communication. Also protects the right to use the Russian language in education, mass media, local authorities, law court, economic and social spheres.
In addition, the local authority has the right to participate in the appointment of prosecutors and judges. Ukraine undertakes each year to allocate from the budget funds for the restoration and development of certain territories of Donetsk and Lugansk regions.
Petro Poroshenko has repeatedly stated, breaks the Minsk agreements – Russia military and equipment which are still in the territory of Donbass. In addition, the first and most important point of the agreement – has not earned the «silence mode». According to the President, this issue will be devoted to all international negotiations, particularly in the «Normandy format» and in the framework of the Trilateral contact group. The President stressed that Ukraine remains on the agenda of the international coalition.
By the way, the restore control over the border, according to the Minsk agreements, should pass after the execution of the 11th clause (the Constitutional reform and «special status» for Donbass»). Poroshenko noted a few times – the law on «special status» will work only after regaining control over the border.
17 December summit EU-Ukraine Poroshenko, according to his press service, brought with him «some additional evidence of continuous breaches by Russia of the Minsk agreements», namely the violation of the territorial integrity, supply troops, weapons, etc.
Judging by the activity of basic «talking heads» presidential administration, wrote on his page on the social network political analyst Taras Zavgorodnyaya, a decision was made to push through a «special status» in the Constitution.
«The main argument – «we will stop supporting the West, if not drag», while silent, what is important in the support of the West is sanctions that are going in any case to withdraw in the case of the Minsk agreements are fulfilled. Judging by the fact that Minster began to pour slop and Lyashko, Samopomich, calling them a «fifth column», we can already understand who definitely will not vote. The adoption of the Constitution, which will not recognize more than half of the population will make the current referendum on secession of the occupied parts of Donbas», – the expert believes.
A security expert Alexei Miller believes that the implementation of the Minsk agreements in the order as it is written now, will not lead to the settlement of the conflict in the Donbas.
«Russia requires that the benefit of Russia. And no one should doubt this. The sad thing is that the Russian requirements indicated in the Minsk agreements. The question of why Ukraine signed the order of execution of the agreements remains open. Clearly, if the agreement will be performed in the order as required by Russia, any successful resolution will be. Don’t need to draw Parallels between the resolution of the conflict and the implementation of the Minsk agreements. There is another danger – trying to convince people of the inevitability of these agreements. This is a departure from the valid search of ways of settlement», – said Alexey Miller.
«Russia requires that the benefit of Russia. And no one should doubt this. The sad thing is that the Russian requirements indicated in the Minsk agreements. The question of why Ukraine signed the order of execution of the agreements remains open», – said Alexey Miller.
The political scientist Alexey Garan considers that if in this session the parliamentarians will not accept Constitutional changes, the whole process will start again. The political scientist also is a reminder of their obligations and also has the West, which, according to the Budapest Memorandum must ensure that the territorial integrity of Ukraine.
According to the expert, the intrigue about whether the deputies amendments to the Constitution, remains still.
«The arguments of the Ukrainian side is that you cannot start with item 11, while not met, paragraphs 1, 2 and 3. There is no peace, no withdrawal of weapons, no exchange of prisoners. I’m not saying that there is paragraph 10, which says about the withdrawal of foreign troops. Therefore, the Ukrainian side has arguments. We can’t start from the end. At the same time, the intrigue remains. Now really have problems to score these 300 voters,» says Oleksiy Haran. So about Alexander Litvin writes in the article «Variation of the Minsk agreements that Russia demands from Ukraine and who support «special status» in the newspaper «Today».
The other day there was a number of things which should be concerned by the Ukrainian government. Last week U.S. Secretary of state John Kerry and Russian foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, talking on the phone, discussed the implementation of the Minsk agreements and the situation in the middle East. After a few days on these topics spoke to U.S. President Barack Obama, calling the Russian leader Vladimir Putin. And last Friday in the Kaliningrad region of the Russian Federation took place the meeting between U.S. assistant Secretary of state for Europe and Eurasia Victoria Nuland’s adviser, according to media reports, «the curator of the war in the Donbass» by Vladislav Surkov. The latter, according to Petro Poroshenko, in 2014, participated in the negotiations on the situation in the East.
In these negotiations, the theme of which was the settlement of the conflict in Ukraine, alarming at least two things. First, attempts to negotiate with the aggressor. As if the West tried to persuade the Kremlin to stop the aggression, he still does not recognize that is a party to the bloody conflict. Boris Gryzlov after the recent arrival in Kyiv, who tried to make a secret of the Ukrainian authorities, stated: «the Parties (to the conflict in the Donbas. — Ed.) only two: the Donbass and Kiev.»
Secondly, in the negotiations on the conflict in the Donbass about the absence of Ukrainian representatives. The situation is such that Ukraine’s fate is solved beyond, and then using the «mediators» these decisions are broadcast to the Ukrainian authorities for their implementation. Is the yesterday and today on an official visit to Kiev there arrived the special envoys of the German Federal Chancellor Christopher Heusgen and French President Jacques Odiber? Their official goal is «to discuss ways of intensifying the implementation of the Minsk agreements, including full ceasefire from the militants, abduction by Russia of heavy weapons and release all hostages», — reported by the media. It should be emphasized that all these negotiations and meetings take place on the eve of the Verkhovna Rada voting for constitutional changes with a «special status» for the occupied part of Donbass.
Serhiy SOLODKY, first Deputy Director of the Institute of world politics believes that backroom negotiations are taking place fairly carefully. Therefore to say that the US, Germany or France in this respect naive — not. «Their diplomats provide assessment of what happened: Russia is the aggressor, who has violated basic norms of international law and coexistence. Our partners understand who is to blame, but look for the ways and mechanisms of resolving the conflict with Russia. While they hope diplomatic tools,» he said.
The expert reminds: in this situation, you should understand that much depends on us. «The last word for us, for Ukraine’s Parliament will vote whether it’s constitutional changes, the President — whether to accept the terms of he partners, he said. — Why the Ukrainian side should be included to convince partners that believe Putin should not be, and if diplomacy can solve the problem, not by the Deposit of Ukraine».
«It is important to present one clear argument: the Russian problem applies not only to resolve the conflict in the Donbass is domestic political balance in a free Ukraine, where the hand of Moscow has not reached the level of aggression both in Crimea and in the East. Because we have seen what accompanied the vote for constitutional changes on August 31, 2015. Therefore, you should take into consideration the fact that Ukraine offered,» recalls sweet.
«But, in order to strengthen its position, Ukraine will have to change on the inside. However, the oligarchic system still affects other areas of social life, — the expert believes. — Secrecy is another manifestation of this, because in Ukraine there are actually two spaces: one in the TV for people and the other real, that exists in enclosed spaces among the clans. Old habit not to be accountable to citizens and not to inform about the causes and effects of decisions — these are all symptoms of oligarchic past, with which Ukraine can not give up».
And the Ambassador at large MFA of Ukraine Dmitry Kuleba believes that the recent intensification of contacts — this is another attempt to find leverage to force Russia to implement the Minsk agreements.
«We must strictly adhere to their red lines — the territorial integrity and European choice of Ukraine and keep the unity with our Western partners. With regard to the implementation of the Minsk agreements, starting from the first and key step is a ceasefire and Russia is able to provide it, but, as you can see, has no desires,» he says.
«Negotiations with Putin are not the only method of work of our Western partners, — said Kuleba. — Suffice it to recall the successive sanctions that have a negative impact on the Russian economy. We need to continue the policy of pressure with the Windows open for dialogue. Foreign policy is not done quickly, but it is important that it was done. That is what we are now seeing». Write about it Dmitry Krivtsun, Nikolai Ciroc in the article «the flip side of tricks» in the newspaper «Day».
23 January in Ukraine will work out an evaluation mission of the UN to study the situation in the Donbass about the possibility of deploying a peacekeeping mission in Eastern Ukraine. Mission was invited by the permanent representative of Ukraine to the United Nations Volodymyr Yelchenko.
Of course, I would wait at least preliminary results of the mission – what they say about the possibility of sending peacekeepers into Ukraine, it will be very important for the country. When such preliminary assessment will appear, it will be possible to build more or less accurate forecasts, as prospects of deployment of a full peacekeeping mission seem almost approaching to zero.
However, the fact that the evaluation mission was sent to Ukraine is a positive thing.
But the final decision of what should be a peacekeeping mission, what will be the mandate, force levels, and the decision to establish the mission will be taken by the UN security Council, where Russia has veto power. This can be a major obstacle to the emergence of UN peacekeepers in Ukraine.
There is another danger associated with the theme of the peacekeeping mission. Of course, Russia will not allow (or at least tries to keep) taking any steps that threaten to destroy the plans, which it tries to achieve due to the conflict in the Donbass.
And the situation should be assessed primarily from this point of view: the mission will be aimed at resolving the conflict or the fact that Russia achieved its goals. And here is the key threat: Russia may at some point offer their peacekeeping mission. Will do it when will make every effort to be UN folded his arms.
And if anyone is interested in how events will develop further, there are striking examples of Transnistria and South Ossetia. So can decide if Russia will convince all «give us, we organize the world.» And «world» in the best case will be following the example of South Ossetia, writes Alex Miller in the article «Peacekeepers in the Donbass. Russia can go to the trick» in the edition «New time».
January 20. Press review. To negotiate with the aggressor 20.01.2016