The hryvnia is cheaper again. Yesterday some of the exchange rate came to 28.9 UAH/USD., and the average cash dollar sold at 28,48 UAH, bought — 27,73 that 50 kopecks more expensive than the day before. Financial analysts predict that in the coming year, the waiting for the inevitable currency devaluation.
The main reason for the cheapening of the hryvnia — the instability of the global economy, weak growth of our economy and Ukraine’s dependence on energy imports, which again began to rise.
According to experts of FOREX CLUB in Ukraine, for 2016, the hryvnia depreciated by 12.9%, or approximately UAH 3 logging in 10 of the weakest currencies in the world, but still far behind the five antiliderov.
The devaluation has occurred from-for excess of imports over exports, first of all he was affected by the purchase of gas before topstone, price volatility in commodity markets and the nationalization of PrivatBank, explains a senior analyst at GK FOREX CLUB Andrey Shevchishin.
«The main external risk is the outbreak of a trade war between the US and China (start to sell goods to other countries at low prices to make these products competitive. — Ed.) able to provoke a crisis out of which countries will see the devaluation of national currencies. And Ukraine will not be able to be in the side, — the Shevchishin. — In the baseline scenario, the expected average annual rate of 27-28,5 UAH/USD. But negative developments, the hryvnia could weaken to 28-30,5 UAH/ USD. and more, depending on the policy of the NBU and the government.»
The President Ukranalittsentra Alexander Ohrimenko more pessimistic: «the Average rate on a year — 30 UAH/USD. but it could be 27-27,5 if you match the following factors will increase the currency inflow from migrant workers and grain exporters and metal, oil prices will not grow more than $ 70./barrel (now $ 56), the NBU will no longer close banks, and the government will actively carry out reforms. Otherwise, perhaps 33 UAH/USD. While the likelihood that the course to the end of the year will be below 30 UAH/USD., greater than 50%». This writes Alexander Panchenko in the article «the dollar a year scenarios and forecasts of experts» in the newspaper «Today».
In January 2017, the hryvnia depreciated almost 3% against the U.S. currency.
In the last week of depreciation of the national currency has become particularly noticeable – the pair hryvna/dollar in the cash market broke the mark of 28 UAH/USD.
Today, January 12, NBU official exchange rate established at the level 27,11 UAH/USD. And already tomorrow the course will take a value of 27.25 UAH/USD. — so ended trading on the interbank market. Cash banks buy dollar on average for 27,73 UAH, and sell 28,47 UAH.
The sharp rise of the dollar experts associated with situational deficit of dollar on the interbank foreign exchange market and speculative activity of the «money changers» who use the panic of the population.
Among the real reasons for the devaluation of the hryvnia is not economic factors, experts believe. The fact is that, on the one hand, on the eve of the new year Ukrainian farmers have received quite large sums of compensation of the VAT from the state (in national currency). Having sufficient amounts of the hryvnia, as explained by the head of the Department for dealing operations of «Raiffeisen Bank Aval Yuriy Grinenko, they do not yet need to sell the foreign currency. Which, consequently, reduces the supply of dollars.
On the other hand, according to senior analyst finkompany «Alpari» Vadim Iosubin the last few weeks have seen an increase in demand for foreign currency among all categories of market participants. «Citizens acquire in connection with the end of the festive period (to which they the dollar sold), resumed its activity after the holidays, importers and banks on the correspondent accounts of which there is an excess hryvnia liquidity,» he says.
In addition, traditionally the beginning of the month, according to experts, there is a demand for the currency for dividend the company paid to its foreign shareholders.
National Bank to strengthen the position of the hryvnia is not in a hurry. With the new year the regulator has entered the market with dollar supply only twice: 6 Jan sold is 55.2 million dollars, 10 Jan 51 million dollars.
According to experts, the fluctuations are minor, and because of them the national Bank out with interventions. The devaluation of the regulator to contain not be. «The NBU is in the market only in the case where there is a large excess of demand over supply. They declare that they will not stop the course. And if the market will be felt the demand on the currency, that will allow dollar to grow and will not try to stop him,» says Grinenko.
According to the respondents financiers, moderate pressure on the hryvnia will occur throughout January, and perhaps also in the next month. The increased supply of the dollar will happen in about 2-3 weeks. Perhaps those same farmers. And since February, probably, we can see the stabilization of the hryvnia,» said Grinenko.
In General, the hryvnia in the current year has a little SAG compared to the level of 2016. The expected range of fluctuations of a pair of «hryvnia-dollar» will be 26-30 UAH/USD., Les writes the Vyg in the article «Course 28. Or what happens to UAH – infographics» in the edition «New time».
Faster than all of the appreciation of traditionally react tour operators. They recount the price for tours instantly, but the surprise for potential tourists does not end there.
«The price is announced orally, it doesn’t matter — the important paper, in which the price is specified, — said the lawyer Andrei Wigierski. – If the contract is the sum in hryvnias and there are no reservations, the change rate is the concern of the organization providing services. Besides, the course of tour operators does not correspond to the official NBU rate – it has inherent risks.»
In grocery stores of Ukrainians in the first after the holiday surprises were waiting. And entirely unpleasant.
Fruits and vegetables without tears will not look: a small bunch of lettuce, dill or parsley – 25 UAH. tomatoes – 45-50 UAH. cucumbers – 60 UAH per kilo. But even in traditionally «expensive» new year’s eve the prices of these goods was one and a half times below!
«The experience of previous exchange rate shocks can talk about that first in the grocery market more expensive imported perishable products — fruits, vegetables, greens, said the retail expert Andrey Kutsenko. — Then within 7-10 days you rise on fish and other seafood, followed by more expensive meat and sausage.»
This time supermarkets long did not wait and inflated prices on almost everything.
Economist Vasyl Yurchyshyn agrees: objectively more expensive have only imported goods. However, due to the so-called conditional relationships between catch rates and the fact that no relation to the import has not. For example, imported cheese is expensive due to objective reasons, as domestic production of cheese already it just «catches up».
The weakening of the national currency impact primarily on the purchasing power of our citizens. After all, with the appreciation of the dollar and gradually rising prices for all imported goods: food, clothing, household chemicals, drugs, equipment, fuel. In the past year there has been an incredible increase in prices for housing and communal services, after which the largest part of the income of people began to leave just for paying bills. In Ukraine, many citizens who receive the minimum salary and pension. With such low income people unable to pay in full not only utility bills, but also to buy the necessary food, medicine, clothing and other products.
Every appreciation of the dollar is a reason to raise the price of gasoline. Because of its oil we have, and the fuel we are mostly imported from abroad. And in this market there are double standards. When the dollar is rising, gasoline becomes more expensive, because traders are trying to be «Pro-active». But when the American currency is falling, gas stations are not in a hurry to cut prices, explaining: we’re gasoline at high prices bought!
Here and now: if at the end of December the 95th were sold from 21,50 24.99 UAH., then just two weeks the price jumped to 22.50-25,99 UAH, writes Natalia Mickovska in the article «the Dollar is over 28: what was your reaction rates» in the newspaper «KP in Ukraine».
January 13. Press review. The hryvnia weakened and the predictions of experts 13.01.2017