The administration of Barack Obama the last months of being in power was very productive. In fact, Obama given portion of sanctions against the Russian Federation and certain representatives of its government – as long as it was not given for the last three years since the start of the conflict in Ukraine. With a huge number of «red flags» Obama has placed quite deliberately to limit the room for manoeuvre for the administration of Donald trump.
Trump and Obama are in a state of acute conflict: trump promised on 20 January that as soon as you get the right to sign and cancel a few dozen Executive orders of Barack Obama, which relate primarily to the political situation in the United States. In addition, trump declares intention to reset relations with Russia.
In this regard, the administration of the tramp doing everything possible to avoid an escalation of relations with Russia. Here is significant, as trump commented on the 35 expulsion of Russian diplomats from the USA and that Putin did not answer a similar effect – the expulsion of American diplomats. Trump in a tweet said, «always believed Putin is a clever guy.»
The administration trump will tend to soften or remove sanctions against Russia; however, since most of the sanctions imposed by the U.S. Congress, will make it almost impossible. But there is also a list of personal sanctions that Barack Obama introduced in March 2014 by certain Russian politicians and military officers involved in the annexation of the Crimea and the cancellation or revision of these lists as time already and within the competence of the forty-fifth President of the United States.
The fact that after the report, which recorded the activity of Russian special services, encourage Vladimir Putin to go to improve relations will be doubly suspicious, because these intelligence agencies have established that the intervention of the Russian intelligence helped Donald Trump win the presidential election. And any attempt to challenge these findings will lead to severe conflicts between the President and the intelligence services.
You can, of course, to say that the heads of the three intelligence agencies who made this report, was appointed by the President-Democrat Obama and could act in their interests, but this is not true. American intelligence agencies have always been outside the influence of politicians and political context of the current administration.
In any case, ignoring the trump of intelligence is a certain paradox in American politics, especially such a high level. And it raises questions about the competence of the forty-fifth President of the United States and its ability to respond to security challenges.
Another thing is that trump could either mitigate the consequences of the conflict or further aggravate it. Talk of a possible impeachment of trump in connection with the intervention of the Russian special services are conducted virtually from the first day of his election, and this idea is discussed at a fairly serious expert level.
You must understand that Russia will do its utmost to inflate their own role in elections – the Kremlin always does that, emphasizing your status. And, given the successful experience of intervention in the American elections, Putin will seek to interfere in the electoral process in the countries of the European Union. The only question is ability: if the most powerful us intelligence agencies are unable to effectively resist Russian hackers, the ability of the Germans and the French to this meager. Their experience does not go to any comparison with the us, but because the intervention of the Russians in the elections in France and Germany is sure to be even more ambitious, says Taras Berezovets in the article «trump, the secret services and Putin: who will win» in the edition «New time».
Today the Republican leader will give his first press conference as President of the United States.
Now the main question is whether it is literally to follow his outrageous campaign promises or podkorrektirovatj them as head of state. This is especially important for Ukraine, as the US depends a lot in resolving the crisis in the Donbass. After all, during his election campaign, Donald trump has made it clear that Ukraine is for him to be a secondary priority, because of her, he has no intention of spoiling its relations with Russia. And the U.S. is a key player in world politics, so Kiev will have to revise its policy, taking into account the position of the new American President. It is possible that this can be serious concessions in the sphere of its national interests. And this process apparently started now.
Recall that at the end of 2016 the former Secretary of state Henry Kissinger suggested that Donald Trump’s plan to normalize relations with Russia, a bargaining chip which should be the Ukraine. The main idea of this plan is that the United States should recognize the dominance of Russia in the former Soviet space. And on the Ukrainian question is the next exchange: Moscow gives guarantees of security in Eastern Ukraine, and the West stops pedaling the annexation of Crimea. The Peninsula will not be officially recognized as Russian, but this question will cease to be a problem in Russian-American relations, the article said.
At first it looked like one of the plans offered by the new American President, many overseas experts and diplomats. But literally in the first days of 2017, famous Ukrainian businessman and philanthropist Victor Pinchuk was published in the American newspaper the Wall Street Journal article, which is almost one to one copies of the theses and the spirit of the «Kissinger plan». In it Victor Pinchuk offers to Ukraine instead of peace in the Donbas to abandon their stated intent to join the EU, forget about NATO membership, to accept the loss of Crimea, and also to hold elections in the occupied territories.
This article could be considered a personal viewpoint, if not a figure of its author. After all, Victor Pinchuk was one of the main lobbyists of Ukraine in the international arena. His strategy Yalta, the Ukrainian lunch in Davos annually brings together influential foreign politicians and businessmen, which have great weight in the world.
And here arises the main question: the position of Pinchuk — it is his personal views or evidence of de facto changing the position of the Ukrainian leadership? Officially — yet. In the administration of President Poroshenko has criticized the proposals of the Victor Pinchuk Foundation. But we cannot exclude that the plan Pinchuk zenderoudi the mood of society regarding the change of the policy of official Kiev Donbass. The more that the fact of the almost simultaneous appearance almost identical plans of Kissinger and Pinchuk suggests that over the ocean, this plan is considered as one of the main options for the «normalization» of the crisis in the Donbas.
Why guide these plans in Ukraine became Victor Pinchuk? As someone with a long history of contacts with representatives of the political and business establishment in the United States, he either already knows, or assumes future actions of the new government in Ukraine. In addition, he is a businessman and understands all the negative consequences for Ukraine’s economy due to the tightening of the conflict in the Donbass.
Views Pinchuk shares part of society and business in Ukraine. And besides, according to the American press, Pinchuk is the largest investor in the family-the Clinton Foundation among the citizens of Ukraine, whose contribution amounted to $ 13 million. And now he seeks to regain its position in the eyes of the winning trump, connected to the implementation of the «Kissinger plan,» says Viktor Timofeev in the article «trump’s Plan for Ukraine» in the newspaper «KP in Ukraine».
The article of the Ukrainian oligarch Victor Pinchuk in the American edition the Wall Street Journal with the so-called «painful compromises» had a great resonance in society. Two weeks later she still maintains a high «temperature of the discussion.» Offers «businessman and philanthropist» as he signed himself, was criticized by prominent politicians, public figures and journalists. Indeed, in this publication, the oligarch actually derived a formula of compromise for the sake of «peace» in Ukraine. That is, conventionally, recognizing the Ukrainian territory for the Ukraine, de facto it suggests to abandon them in the interests of the occupier until better times.
Deputy head of the presidential administration of Ukraine Konstantin Eliseev gave the answer Viktor Pinchuk in the same publication, where he explained that the position of the Ukrainian authorities was diametrically opposed to the position of Pinchuk. «I can not agree with him (Pinchuk) call for compromise based on the fears. Fear and weakness are the wrong reasons, they only warm up the appetites of Russia. …No reversal of European and Euro-Atlantic integration. It would be a surrender of independence and sovereignty of Ukraine. No trade territory of Ukraine, or Donbass or Crimea. These areas may not be traded for peace,» said Elisha.
There is every reason to believe that Russia would not voluntarily leave the occupied territory. And it concerns not only Crimea, but the Donbass, which have long formed a powerful military enclave. It is hard to imagine that the Kremlin withdraws voluntarily or will leave a lot of techniques with the militants. Consequently, Putin’s goal is Ukraine’s statehood. Those who whispers all kinds of suggestion about the reconciliation, are not for the world, but for fixed. Person Pinchuk in this respect, quite revealing. It’s not just one of the largest representatives of the oligarchic system of Ukraine, is the son of ex-President Leonid Kuchma. The latter, by the way, as soon as the Kremlin occupied the Crimean Peninsula, almost immediately (in may 2014) stated: «Crimea, we have already lost, and I believe that to return it is impossible, since Russia went VA-Bank».
«This article is not casual, — gives the comment editor in chief of the BlackSeaNews project, krymchanin Andrei Klimenko. — There are two components of the reasons for its occurrence. First. It’s not how to start a conversation, but how to get out of it. Pinchuk thus actually reminds Trump that they are familiar with. He tells the world that he is familiar with trump and even included him on Skype on one of their forums, YES. Second. Of course, such things are known as sounding out — the official opinions of the public reaction. Can not cause interest in what is the second powerful sounding on this topic. The first attempt to monitor the reaction was when their statements did Kissinger. His words are almost identical to what he wrote Pinchuk. You can make the assumption that the big business community are tired of war and sanctions. These circles are both in Russia and outside it. They are trying to start work on the denunciation of the sanctions, and it can be done only in the conditions of the scenario, which is described by Pinchuk. Honestly, I think that is not a Minsk-3, and the Munich-2017,» says Klimenko.
Suggestions Pinchuk was not alone. His vision of the problems outlined in the online edition of «Apostrophe» diplomat, Chairman of the International centre for policy studies (ICPS) Vasily Filipchuk. Step by step he describes another «compromise» scenario, which he calls the most constructive. The material is called «a Bargaining chip or a battlefield: what will happen with Ukraine in 2017. 9 steps to resolving the conflict with Russia»
Filipchuk writes that «Ukraine and Russia must agree to return to the existing bilateral legal framework, including the so-called Great contract, which should be prolonged». Ukraine, according to Filipchuk, must agree «to sell or to give into concession the defense plants that operate only on the Russian market, to go public with the opportunity to purchase shares of Russia’s other businesses». Russia, in turn, will ensure control over Ukraine’s use of defense products that will be produced on our territory. The guarantee of the Russian Federation, it seems, it must be delivered to Donbass «grad» and tanks
Statements of Kisindzherom, article Pinchuk, suggestions Filipchuk… look layered probing of the Ukrainian society and world community. Thus we are prepared for soft surrender, when the party was attacked, instead of calling a spade a spade, pretends that nothing happened. And this is a blow to the basic institution of state — sovereignty.
«It is necessary to call things by their proper names, — emphasized ex-the Minister of foreign Affairs of Ukraine Volodymyr Ogryzko. — Uncertainty in terms leads to speculation. Polovina, polato, preparequery, proconsulate. This ultimately leads to the retreat and defeat, and encourages the enemy to attack. Such hybridity harm Ukraine. Nobody’s stopping power is not limited to formal statements, and legally to dot the «I». It’s never too late to correct your mistakes as well as not too late to break off diplomatic relations with the aggressor. If we will only make statements and Express the concern, then the situation will unfold in the favor of the aggressor.» This writes Ivan KAPSAMUN in the article «Compromises» Pinchuk as the script of surrender?» in the newspaper «Day».
January 11. Press review. Plan trump Russia and Ukraine 11.01.2017