Besides the victory of Donald trump in US elections, the presidency of which will be another illustration of the role of personality in history, in the leadership of other countries in 2016 was a quite significant reshuffle, which will affect the global agenda in the new year.
The planned election of the President of Austria took place in may 2016, they are 72-year-old Alexander van der Bellen , former leader of the green Party, now an independent candidate — defeated 45-year-old candidate of the far-right freedom Party Norbert Hofer with the minimum gap — for 50.3% against 49.7%. The constitutional court due to irregularities in the counting process filed by mail ballots annulled the election results and re-appointed on 4 December 2016. Lose van der Bellen, who was supported by all system political forces of Austria, most European leaders and the EU leaders, could weaken the position of supporters of European integration, which had not yet recovered from Brexit.
22 Jan 2017 will take place the inauguration of the new President of Bulgaria 53-year-old rumen Radeva. The power of the President are severely restricted. It can affect public opinion and has the right to veto decisions of the Parliament. However, the President has the right to reject the decision of the Parliament no more than three times. If the deputies take the same decision for the fourth time, it is considered valid.
Radev during the election campaign said that Bulgaria has no alternative to membership in EU and NATO. He also called for an end to EU sanctions against Russia, said wants to establish with Russia pragmatic cooperation, and these ideas are in Bulgarian society popular.
August 31, 2016, the Brazilian Senate voted for the final impeachment of the President of the country’s 69-year-old Rousseff. Before the election, to be held in 2018, the country is led by former Vice-President. The main accusation was the budget machinations: that the government at the initiative of the President in 2014-2015 To improve performance in the current period were for the following financial period, planned spending on social programs. But in fact, the main interest of the political initiators of the referendum — the desire for power. Corruption in Brazil is now possible to dismiss almost any politician.
In Italy a referendum on constitutional reform took place on 4 December last year. It included reducing the number of seats in the Senate from 315 to 100, of the deprivation of his right to issue a vote of no confidence in the government and legislative functions. It was supposed to divide the spheres of responsibility of the Central authorities and regional governments, and to abolish the provinces — administrative units of second level. Planned and other changes.
The initiator of the changes was the Prime Minister 41-year-old Matteo Renzi, the aim of the reform was called simplification of governance. The majority of Italians voted against the proposals of the government, and the Prime Minister resigned. In the coming year, Italy can expect another referendum on the reforms of tax and judicial systems, and labour market.
11 December of last year in Kyrgyzstan held a referendum on amendments to the Constitution. In 25 years of independence this is the seventh in a national referendum in the country.
The current Constitution was adopted by referendum in June 2010, immediately after the overthrow of President Kurmanbek Bakiyev. The amendments changed the form of government from presidential to parliamentary — the first country in Central Asia has moved to a parliamentary system. At the same time the Constitution was written, what new developments can contribute up to 2020 But the government has decided that this change is still needed. They were supported by about 80% of voters with a turnout of 42%.
13 Nov 2016 victory in the second round of elections of the President of Moldova has received a 41-year-old Igor Dodon, who scored 52% of the vote. The leader of the Party of socialists during the election campaign, made statements about the actual recognition Crimea the Russian and the desire to cooperate with Moscow, refused his words, he and after his election as head of state.
23 Jun 2016 52% of Britons who came to the referendum voted for secession from the EU. Prime Minister David Cameron campaigned for the continued membership in the European Union, resigned. For this position the ruling Conservative party nominated 60-year-old Teresa Mae.
Realizing the seriousness of what happened in the referendum, many of those who voted for secession were willing to back off, but new Prime Minister insisted that «means Brexit Brexit», and is actively working on the preparation of the release process, which may formally begin in March of this year.
On the night of July 16, 2016 in Turkey there was a military coup attempt. And although it was rather strange and toothless, the reaction of the current President Erdogan (62) was fast, hard and ambitious. The country was in a state of emergency was extended again (this time to March 19).
In political terms, the Turkish authorities are now torn between Russia and the West. Is so largely because the country’s economy is in a difficult position. Problems Turkey is still of little interest to the West, but Russian President Putin is ready to «make friends» with Erdogan, which until recently was called a «traitor». This writes Sergey Gusev in the article «2017 and politics: symbolic changes in the top leadership of the States» in the newspaper «Today».
The cheap dollar has passed. This is the main message from all of the economists in 2017. The American economy recovered after the crisis of 2008-2009 and the beginning of steady growth. The election of Donald trump to the President even more convinced analysts that the new US leadership will focus on how to ensure the growth of domestic production and create more jobs.
«We believe that the interest rate in the United States can be improved for 2017, and repeatedly — said the analyst «Alpari» Anna Kokoreva. — It will be associated with improvement in the U.S. labor market, and perhaps with the new course of the President trump, aimed at creating new jobs. Rate hikes in the short-term positive impact on the dollar against world currencies, and simultaneously have a negative impact on the Euro.»
Most experts believe that the dollar and the Euro will be equal in the first half of next year.
But the European crisis drags on and the following year. Although it is due to the falling Euro, European goods should become cheaper on world markets and become more popular with buyers. Experts do not exclude that the ECB will initiate further depreciation of the Euro, so as to restart the European economy.
Analysts at IHS Markit believe that even by the end of this year in the Euro area could resume growth. However, next year the EU will find a few dangers. In the first place — political: Brexit, the consequences of the Italian referendum and elections in Germany, France and the Netherlands.
It would seem that what has politics to the economy? But experts say that instability in Italy threatens to trigger a banking crisis. Perhaps that is why many European politicians have closely followed the nationalization of the Ukrainian PrivatBank. And Bloomberg even published an article in which he cited the example of Ukraine, and advised the EU and Italy to pay attention to our experience. The fact that there is experiencing similar problems is one of the oldest financial institutions of the country, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA. This Bank needed capital to cover losses from unreliable deposits at 30 billion euros.
A strong dollar will affect the price of gold and oil.
«An important factor in determining price movements throughout 2017, will be the U.S. position in the oil market — says Anna Bodrov. — The behavior of the oil companies of America, whose production is concentrated in shale deposits, can be aggressive as soon as the price of oil WTI will be fixed above $ 50 per barrel. In this case, the increase in the supply of crude oil from its largest consumer will put pressure on prices, which subsequently may cause a downward correction».
In addition, Donald trump can remove the restrictions on the exploration and production of hydrocarbons in the United States. This, according to experts, will mean that mining States will start to grow, and the demand for raw materials from third countries will fall.
As for gold prices, given the strong dollar, experts do not expect a substantial rise in price of precious metals. A Troy ounce of gold can rise with the current 1140 to 1250 dollars.
However, if world politics will Mature next conflict, the demand for this metal may increase. Experts say that gold is not just a hedge against inflation, it also becomes popular in a period of political instability. Given the aggressive attitude of the administration trump against China and Iran, it is easy to imagine that gold in 2017 will be the chances of at least short-term, but grow in price.
Will examine separately those goods that make up the main export potential of Ukraine. This food and the products of the metallurgical industry. Experts say that food prices in the world will follow commodity prices, including oil. But the steel market is rising despite excess production. And helped him, oddly enough, the victory of Donald trump.
The fact that the election of the next President include a promise to abandon a regime of fiscal austerity, increase defense spending and to provide priority funding for infrastructure projects, and their volume exceeds 3.5 trillion dollars. Of course, after his victory jumped sharply commodity futures on steel raw materials — planned construction of roads, bridges and airports will require a lot of metal. Since the victory of Donald trump proved beneficial for Ukrainian steel companies, writes Andrew Gatsenko in the article «the World economy in 2017: a strong dollar and price hikes of raw materials» in the newspaper «KP in Ukraine».
Geopolitical risks – a difficult thing. Every other publication or report on a political topic contains «reliable information» about the strategy of trump, Putin’s plans or dreams Merkel. As a result, we prefer to shy away from obscure, ignoring early signs of danger until, until you break out the full-blown crisis.
But in recent years, namely the geopolitical events caused turbulence in the global capital markets. The VIX index reflects investors ‘ expectations regarding the fluctuation (volatility) of the U.S. stock market, showed a maximum value in response to important geopolitical events: the annexation of Crimea, Brexit, the election trump.
There is no doubt that the world is gradually becoming, at least, and the bipolar competition, the United States and China for the right to be the main pole will be a key factor affecting the dynamics of the global commodity and financial markets. This, of course, is the economic power that is the Foundation of geopolitics. The same Russia, for example, out of his pants ready to prove the right to global leadership. That’s just the economy, the size of 10% of the us, makes these attempts completely unrealistic.
Another important factor in – common position on strategic issues. Its absence does not allow the EU to compete with the US and China for the right to be a «pole» effect. So, we can expect the drama of «US vs China», and, according to many analysts, it is not clear how the peace will be such competition.
Against the background of us-Chinese keynote is to listen and to adverse parties: Russia attempts to regain its former glory, the middle East crisis, the situation in North Korea, the Indo-Pakistani conflict between two nuclear powers, terrorism, uncontrolled migration, the growing populism and the disintegration processes in Europe. Yes, for all misfortunes, after the election trump, one with accuracy, not predict what will happen now the American foreign policy. Life without a «policeman», somehow, but still prismatrivalsya order in the world can be full of uncertainty.
So, anyway, and, most likely, geopolitics is the dominant factor in determining our financial future in the coming years. Because of the escalation of even one of the above threats is enough to influence the trajectory of economic cycles and wreak havoc on the global commodity and financial markets.
For our little, completely dependent on world prices for raw materials and windswept Economics, geopolitics, and provoked by its economic turmoil, as the time and pose the greatest threat. And so it will be as long as we do not build the economy, not based on oligarchic «factories, Newspapers, steamships» and the small and medium business and domestic markets, writes Ivan KOMPAN in the article «Mrs. b Utica, and holopaw cube Trat!» in the edition «New time».
January 10. Press review. Political and economic 2017: what will happen to Ukraine and the world 10.01.2017