InoPressa. Syria: ambiguous diplomatic and military activity of the Kremlin

Putin has stepped up actions against the background of doubt in Washington whether he intended to contribute to the ceasefire agreement. Announced Assad elections are contrary to the roadmap, the UN security Council. ISIL attacks have only intensified an undercover Russian bombings, mass media. «Russia’s support to Assad will not be able to reverse the situation», — predicts expert on guerrilla warfare.

«The Russian President on Wednesday made diplomatic effort to support the ceasefire in Syria, while Washington has doubts about the seriousness of Russia’s intentions to implement the agreement reached at the beginning of this week,» writes The Wall Street Journal.

According to reports from the Kremlin, Assad spoke on the phone with Putin promised to respect the truce, set to begin on Saturday. «Putin’s diplomatic offensive — which also included talks with leaders of Saudi Arabia, Israel, Iran, and Qatar are apparently intended to send a signal of good faith Russia’s actions to implement the agreement on the ceasefire», — stated in the article.

«The Russian military claim that they’ve reduced the number of bombings in areas in which opposition groups have shown willingness to negotiate a ceasefire. On Wednesday, insurgents from the area of HOMS have confirmed this fact», — journalists report. However, the same day a group of opposition activists said the death of at least ten people as a result of the Russian attack in Idlib province.

It is not clear how the Syrian government is going to come out of the conflict. The regime is going to spend 13 April parliamentary elections, but it is unlikely he is able to organize fair and transparent elections. «Moreover, they contradict the «road map» permits five-year conflict, outlined in the December resolution of the UN security Council: it calls for the establishment of a transitional government for six months after the start of peace talks between the regime and the opposition. This new body, and not the President should create a draft of the new Constitution, and then declare the election over a year,» remind the authors.

«The success of the U.S.-Russian agreement on the truce in Syria depends on the fate of one extremist group — and it’s not «Islamic state,» says Nabih bulos on the pages of The Los Angeles Times: among extremist organizations, which are not covered by the cease-fire, named «Dzhabhat EN-Nusra», which «since the beginning of 2012 is a vital player in the ranks of the Syrian armed opposition» (both organizations are banned in Russia. — Approx. ed.).

«There can be no truce, if we aim at «Dzhabhat EN Nusra» because we’re a part of, and it is our part,» he wrote in Twitter a press-the representative of the group «Ahrar al-sham», which describes itself as moderate.

The rebels insist that the inclusion of «Dzhabhat EN-Nusra» in the list of exceptions to the armistice agreement, Russia set to continue its bombing Assad’s enemies, the article says.

«The truce means not only that the warring parties promise not to shoot each other, wrote Monday in a Facebook prominent opposition politician , Luay Hussein. — By its terms, those parties must agree to fight DAISH (ISIL), «Dzhabhat EN-Nusra» and any group that important power called the terrorist organization». The rebels «have to contend with yesterday’s allies,» he complains, «and to cooperate for this purpose with the army of the regime.»

«ISIL benefits from the Russian airstrikes in Syria, using the new air cover to maneuver and regrouping of militants, according to a report published on Wednesday by the Center for the study of terrorism and insurgency IHS Jane’s,» reported Thomas Gibbons-Neff in The Washington Post blog.

«The original Russian position was that its aircraft bombed the «Islamic state», but it quickly became apparent that its air strikes are contributing to the strengthening of distressed forces of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad,» writes the author.

«If you read the headlines, one might get the impression that the support provided by Russia to the dictator Bashar al-Assad, has finally pushed the civil war towards the outcome favorable to him. But the lessons of nearly 200 uprisings occurred after the Second world war, indicate that Russia likely will not be able to reverse the situation,» writes in The Wall Street Journal, Seth Jones, Director of the Centre for policy in international security and defense RAND Corporation, author of the book «guerrilla warfare».

The main problem of Assad, the author calls the «lack of legitimacy among the Syrian people». «It is not excluded that Moscow will be difficult in the long term to support major changes in the balance of power, especially if the Obama administration (or, more likely, the next administration) will decide to fight back,» reads the article.

«The Assad regime is deeply unpopular and is among the most dysfunctional governments in the world, continues Jones. — In addition, neighbouring countries — Jordan, Turkey — Syrian rebels provide a sanctuary where they can plan, gaining recruits and restocked.»

«History shows that to win the rebel forces as illegitimate and ineffective government is almost impossible, especially if the rebels get help from outside and they have a place to hide. With this harsh reality Washington faced in Vietnam and Afghanistan, and Moscow in Afghanistan in the 1980s Russian leaders about it seems to have forgotten,» says the author.

Now in Syria, «the US should set ourselves the following objectives: to prevent the defeat of the main rebel groups, contributing to a more legitimate and acceptable to all governments, to defeat the «Islamic state» and affiliated with «al-Qaeda» grouping «Dzhabhat EN-Nusra». The expert also advises US «to arrange financing training camps of insurgents in neighboring countries, particularly Jordan and Turkey.»

The expert does not agree with the opinion that the war in Syria cannot be stopped by military means: «History shows that in reality everything is more complicated. More than two-thirds of the riots ended in a military victory. About a third ended peacefully — as a rule, after the military conflict is at an impasse. U.S. officials need to accept this reality and to act to help some of Assad’s opponents to resist. Perhaps stalemate is the best way to achieve political agreements to put an end to the war».

Translation InoPressa

InoPressa. Syria: ambiguous diplomatic and military activity of the Kremlin 25.02.2016

Февраль 25th, 2016 by
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