InoPressa. Putin runs the show in Syria, but easy solutions are not there

The passivity of the American policy allows Putin to «order the music» in Syria. In fact, Moscow and Damascus slyly obey UN resolution 2254 dated 18 December 2015, but on its own terms, the media report. Syrian rebels — a motley hodgepodge of units, leaders and movements, and the proliferation of the ceasefire to «Dzhabhat EN Nusra» puts supporters of the truce in a difficult position.

Obama and his aides some skeptical things to say about the partial cessation of violence, which should begin in Syria on Saturday, and for good reason. The Russian President in the last two years repeatedly agreed to the truce in Syria and Ukraine, but never kept,» writes the editors of the Washington Post.

«If any calm actually starts and humanitarian convoys reach their destination, it was only because Putin deems it consistent with its strategic interests,» the article says.

«Without a doubt, Putin hoped that such a demonstration of its importance, coupled with the reduction of the Russian raids on hospitals and other civilian targets in Northern Syria will encourage some countries to insist on the lifting of EU sanctions from his regime — despite the violation of the agreements on Ukraine,» argue the authors of the publication.

The American leadership «there is no consensus on significant measures to limit the military action of Russia, for example by supplying the rebels anti-aircraft weapons».

«The passivity of American politics gives Putin the opportunity to act in Syria as he pleases», — writes the edition, expressing the hope that the Russian leader «will decide that the break in hostilities to his advantage». «But in any case he decides not because he was limited in action by the United States,» complain the authors.

Earlier in the week was made two announcement on Syria: ceasefire scheduled for February 27 and parliamentary elections in April. «Too good to this it was possible to believe,» says Fabrice Balans browser Liberation.

«In fact, Moscow and Damascus slyly obey the peace plan of the UN (resolution 2254 dated December 18, 2015) — on their terms and according to their time frame. Vladimir Putin is playing chess, and he always acts the lead, while his opponents are content to be poorly organized defence,» the author writes.

«Vladimir Putin has declared that will put pressure on Bashar al-Assad to respect the ceasefire, and that he hopes that Barack Obama will do likewise in respect of their regional allies who continue to insist on Assad’s removal, — it is spoken further. A ceasefire means a de facto stay of his power, but the White house will be hard to get them to agree with Turkey and Saudi Arabia». Even if both the sponsor’s rebels will agree to play this game, they can hardly get it to comply with the terms of the ceasefire, all the rebel groups, who consider that they have been betrayed.

The fragmentation of the rebel forces is another added obstacle to the implementation of the ceasefire. Would have to be questioned and the credibility of the United States, as allies of Moscow speak with one voice, and abide by the discipline, the author.

The main problem in the implementation of the truce is «Dzhabhat EN-Nusra». This is an offshoot of al-Qaida on the black list, as well as LIH. But «al-Nusra» is present on all fronts, from Deraa to the Damascus suburbs and Idlib villages. All to end up being the rebel camp will be divided and will begin a fratricidal war. This is probably another hidden purpose of the armistice «variable geometry», the author writes.

«Five years after the start of the war, the humanitarian catastrophe and create the hotbed of jihadism at the gates of Europe, Western governments must decide whether the proposal of Moscow to save face in front of your public opinion. And it is all the more anxious because of the threat of terrorism and the influx of refugees and have — for democracy in Syria. If the Western countries will take them, Turkey will be isolated and will be forced to limit support for the Syrian rebels. Millions of Syrian refugees generated by the conflict, of course, a sharp weapon with which Putin makes enemies of Bashar al-Assad to cease hostilities», — concludes the author.

Russian foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told journalists on Thursday that there will be plan «B» to ceasefire agreement in Syria, writes Business Insider columnist Natasha Bertrand.

This is a response to the words of U.S. Secretary of state John Kerry that America is considering alternative options, if plan «a» — ending violence — not be realized. «It may be too late to maintain a United Syria, if we wait even longer,» said Kerry.

«Some analysts see the statements by Kerry as indirect support for the division of Syria between President Bashar Assad, the Sunni Syrian rebels and Kurds (terrorist group ISIL unless the international coalition can’t defeat the militants in the East of the country),» notes the author.

«The second option [for Russia] will go back to the parts useful for her Syria that can be protected, ensuring the safety of the Alawite Canton», — noted in December, an invited expert on the Middle East at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Joseph Ballut.

The strengthening of the Russian protectorate in Western Syria that is already held and the regime dominated by Assad loyal to the Shiite sect, in the opinion of the former EU Ambassador and an invited expert of Carnegie Europe’s Marc Pierini, will give «a tangible reality of Moscow’s concept of a new international order».

«To swift annexation of Crimea and domination in Eastern Ukraine Russia will now add «Badland», says Pierini. — By doing so, she demonstrates to the world that she is able to revise the international order or, at least she has the courage to act as a «major pest».

Plan «cessation of hostilities» in Syria may not be realized, and if realized, then for a while, writes in The Moscow Times, the expert (new York University). «It is not the fruit of humanistic impulses and diplomatic good will, and of cynicism, exhaustion and geopolitical calculations,» he explains.

And yet, Galeotti finds reason for optimism.

1. «About a durable solution easier to think during the truce, and not in the midst of the fighting,» reads the article.

2. The ceasefire will allow Russia (and require it) and the fight against «Islamic state».

3. Finally, thanks to the truce, the population will receive humanitarian aid.

But the author sees the interference to progress.

According to him, Moscow and Damascus, most likely, will observe the truce, but the rebels are a motley hodgepodge of units, leaders and movements.

Perhaps the most dangerous — extreme «multivectoral» the war in Syria, to the Galeotti. In the camp of the Syrian government there are different factions. Noticeable difference between regime backers — Russia and Iran. Washington supports the Syrian Kurds, Ankara demonize them, the article says.

Other obstacle in the path of progress — Israel, Iraq, Gulf countries and other players who are not so interested in quick settlement.

The Galeotti warns that while Syria is considered only a platform for high-risk games middle East, only temporary and partial breaks in the fighting.

The fact that the ceasefire in Syria is not applicable to the group «Dzhabhat EN-Nusra», puts the supporters of the truce in a difficult position, says The Wall Street Journal. «Militants «An-Nusra» are present throughout, which is controlled by the opposition. The rebels suspect that the Assad regime and its partners will benefit from a special regime of the truce as the pretext to continue attacking more moderate opposition forces.

According to the newspaper, five years of war «Dzhabhat EN-Nusra» turned «to more moderate rebel groups supported by the United States, in a strong, sometimes aggressive ally in the war against the regime».

«Al-Nusra» — a dominant force in the North of Idlib province, reported by the journalists. In the city of Idlib and several other areas controlled by the rebels, «al-Nusra» has its representatives in the coalition of local administrations.

At the time of publication rebel group «Ahrar al-sham» have not agreed to a truce: its embarrassing consequences of exclusion of «An-Nusra» from the truce.

Matar Ismail, an activist from southern Damascus, as it is called by the authors, believes that the ceasefire more likely in the South of Syria, where «Dzhabhat EN-Nusra» there’s limited. But in Northern Syria, where the group is widespread, the attacks on the headquarters of «An-Nusra» may recover its adherents against those insurgents agreed to a truce, reports the publication.


Will the new Syrian raqqa German Torgau? (The Washington Times)

German political scientist: «Russia went on the offensive» (Focus)

Translation InoPressa

InoPressa. Putin runs the show in Syria, but easy solutions are not there 26.02.2016

Февраль 26th, 2016 by
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