In response for the downed Cy-24 the Kremlin cuts off economic ties with Turkey. Erdogan holds niepokorna, but Turkey should fear that Russia will use «Ukrainian» tactics — begin to provide local grouping, in this case the Kurds, experts say. In Syria, force Assad with the support of Russian aviation are advancing towards the Turkish border. Against this background, Hollande arrived in Moscow to discuss a common coalition against ISIL.
«In the last two decades between Russia and Turkey, historic enemies, have established extremely cordial relations, writes in The Wall Street Journal Yaroslav Trofimov. — Even if the destruction this week of the Russian aircraft of the Turkish air force will not lead to a military confrontation, it is clear that these relations will undergo a deep freeze».
«It is important that the relationship soured at the top, — said the Director of the Carnegie Moscow center Dmitri Trenin. Connection between «king» in Moscow and «the Sultan» in Turkey was crucial».
«If Russia wants to test the resolve of Turkey to defend its regime of opening fire, we may be witnessing new incidents involving Russian and Turkish aircraft, which will certainly exacerbate the crisis,» says former Turkish diplomat Sinan Ulgen.
Both Putin and Erdogan are aware of the risk that this conflict could escalate into a global confrontation between Russia and NATO, the author writes.
«Turkey and Russia will refrain from direct military conflict, — said the mayor of the Turkish special forces retired Metin Gurkan. — They have enough indirect ways and methods in Syria». One solution, which is wary of Turkey, is the possible use by Russia of tactics applied in Ukraine: the supply of local groups such as the Kurds, missiles to shoot down the Turkish aircraft, he added.
«Russia will be more and more actively support the Kurds and Kurdish demands, predicts political analyst Andranik Migranyan. And if Syrian and Iraqi Kurds will get the weapons, then this weapon will also go to Turkish Kurds».
«Turkey has vowed to shoot down Russian planes that enter its airspace, and the Kremlin retaliated in the form of sanctions — banned Turkish goods and deported businessmen,» reports The Times. Journalists Hannah Lucinda Smith and mark Bennetts remind chronicle of events: President Putin has demanded from Turkey to apologize for the fact that she shot down a Russian su-24. A few minutes later the President of Turkey, Erdogan said: an apology will not, and the decision to shoot down the plane was taken to protect national interests.
«He rejected claims of Russia that Turkey is buying ISIS oil and helps to Finance the activities of terrorist groups», — the newspaper writes.
For its part, Russia stopped the contract with Turkey in the war plans and severance of economic ties.
Meanwhile one of the leaders of the Syrian opposition said in an interview that Russia is helping the Syrian regime to seize the territory. Mustafa Abdurrahman, the head of the Turkmen national Council, said that Assad wants to seize key area North of Latakia province, which since 2012 is controlled by rebel forces and is the birthplace of the Syrian Turkmen ethnic, allies of Ankara: «the Regime wants in the event of a collapse of Syria, this area became part of the Alawite state.»
Latakia is a key strategic and symbolic importance for the Assad regime (it is the homeland of the alawites), and assumes priority importance for Russia, because Tartous is the Russian Navy, wrote the correspondent.
According to the newspaper, now in the North of Latakia fierce fighting: the regime’s forces supported by Russian aviation are advancing towards the Turkish border. Aid workers ordered to evacuate the area.
«On Thursday the situation around Turkey shot down a Russian military plane had threatened a complete rupture of relations between countries: the Kremlin is prepared to cut off economic ties, the Turkish authorities stated that they have no reason to apologize, reports The New York Times. — May be a archive deal to build a gas pipeline through Turkey, which President Putin welcomed as a positive alternative to the Russian gas exports to Europe.»
«Even before formal plans for economic sanctions, Russia has begun to retaliate. In the case when diplomatic relations sour, Moscow has long practiced the sudden discovery of defects in foreign products and services, — says the article. According to Russian media, the Georgian-Russian border has already lined up hundreds of truckloads of Turkish fruits, vegetables and other products».
In the Krasnodar region 39 a group of Turkish businessmen, who arrived at the agricultural exhibition, held for entry to Russia on tourist and not business visas, although it is a common practice.
Most questions are concerned with the fate of large energy projects, including gas pipeline under the Black sea and the construction of Turkey’s first nuclear power plant, the article says. The Russian Minister Alexei Ulyukayev said Thursday that the pipeline, known as the «Turkish stream» and the project of NPP construction «Akkuyu» can get into the list of sanctions. The Russian government advised tourists not to travel to Turkey and most major tour operators have stopped selling trips to this area.
«Russia does not always use the calculator to make decisions on sanctions — says the author. In 2014 when the West imposed on Russia economic sanctions for what it took from Ukraine, the Crimea, the Kremlin responded with restrictions on the import of Western products, and for Russian customers, this has led to a sharp rise in prices.»
«Shooting down the Russian plane, Erdogan made a fatal mistake, which Putin quickly turn to their advantage», — said the expert on the Middle East Abdel Mottaleb Husseini in an interview with German magazine Focus.
Turkey in the middle East «is losing its influence, including due to the convergence of Russia and Iran. Moreover, NATO is unlikely to go on open confrontation with Russia because of Erdogan, despite the fact that Turkey is a member of the Alliance. In General, to be honest, Erdogan, shooting down the plane, has done a disservice to themselves and to the international fight against ISIL,» believes Husseini.
In addition, Putin may try to dismantle the power of Erdogan in Turkey, Husseini said: «It will seriously annoy Erdogan, if you start to keep living in Turkey the Kurds in their effort to obtain autonomy. In extreme cases it could start to supply weapons to the «workers’ party of Kurdistan» and create huge problems for the Turkish government.»
«If Turkish airspace shot down an unidentified aircraft, this is not an act against any particular country,» argues in an article for The Times, the Prime Minister of Turkey Ahmet Davutoglu. He warns the international community from internal strife: «Otherwise, the winners will be released only «Days», it is ISIL and the Syrian regime».
The Prime Minister recommends to focus on the fight against «international threat «Days», guaranteeing the future of Syria and finding a solution to the current refugee crisis».
Davutoglu believes that the international community has not focused on the fight against «Daish» in Syria. «Instead bombed positions not belonging «Days», as well as groups that are fighting against the Assad regime. I will allow myself, after the Obama and Cameron, to criticize Russia on this item. But we should not be tempted by the game of «who is guilty» — need to focus on the organization of concerted actions,» says the Prime Minister.
He advises in the fight against ISIL to act collectively, based on the «strengths of the US, EU, Russia, Turkey and others.»
Francois Hollande arrived in Moscow hoping to create a United coalition against ISIL, the contours of which Putin outlined in a speech to the UN General Assembly on 28 September, writes Le Figaro. «It is the strategy of Vladimir Putin is the driving force behind today’s diplomatic process but difficult task to implement it and be held accountable for any failure conferred on françois Hollande — says the author of the article Alexis Peerchat. — The fact that the world coalition against the ISIL is a risk to become a mere decoration of papier-mache because of the radical divergence of strategic interests of regional players.»
However, «the Western-Sunni coalition has no choice but to bond with Russian-Shiite coalition», says columnist.
Going to Moscow, Hollande understands that it is de facto close to Putin’s position and the argument Laurent Fabius that «the Russians have changed,» instantly collapses when you check the facts. But in the current situation «uncomfortable» NATO appears Erdogan is bombing Kurds and leaking across their borders, the weapons, oil and cotton, the article says. And although the emergence of a single coalition, or a unified General staff is unlikely, the desire to create them will provide an opportunity to enhance cooperation and coordination between Western and Russian forces operating on Syrian territory.
«The prospects of a truly unified coalition also clouds the specter of the Ukrainian conflict, the author says. — Recent energy blockade of the Crimea, initiated by Ukrainian nationalists and, apparently, secretly supported the government in Kiev, threatened to revive tensions between the West and the East.»
Turkey as a new enemy image for Russia (Neue Zürcher Zeitung)
Putin: Moscow ready to coordinate with the West the attacks on Syria (http://www.inopressa.ru/article/27Nov2015/wp/coordinate.htmlThe Washington Post)
Putin and Erdogan: so similar that they are unbearable (The Financial Times)
InoPressa. Fight Putin with Erdogan in the context of war with ISIS 27.11.2015