A new fierce fighting between Ukrainian soldiers and Pro-Russian separatists, according to analysts, can demonstrate the power of Russia in this region «test» to the Kremlin is trump, but to help Kiev to remind myself of the West. «US policy towards Russia can really move to a sharp change of course at the trump: in a recent statement, the state Department is no criticism of Russia or the separatists,» writes The Guardian.
Immediately after the first telephone conversation between the presidents of the United States and Russia «in Eastern Ukraine along the contact line from the industrial city of Avdeevka — renewed fierce fighting between Ukrainian soldiers and Pro-Russian separatists,» writes Christina Hebel in Der Spiegel. None of the parties does not comply with the ceasefire. According to eyewitnesses, the fighting used heavy artillery and multiple rocket launchers.
Currently, 22 th Avdeevka heating does not work and is not supplied with electricity. Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko imposed a state of emergency and announced plans for the evacuation of the population. The city is Europe’s largest coke plant, owned by oligarch Rinat Akhmetov, said in the article.
For a long time the conflict in Eastern Ukraine was in the shadow of the Syrian war, writes Hebel, and in the aggravation of the conflict may be interested in «both sides — as the Kremlin and the Ukrainian leadership».
Ukrainian experts accuse Moscow of the fact that «she wants to test the response and readiness for dialogue for the new US President Donald trump, and also to show that it continues to control this war.»
Pro-Kremlin experts say the fear of the Ukrainian leadership to lose any role in the «transactions» between Putin and trump and eventually lose its territorial integrity. Kiev wants to show the American leader that the Kremlin and loyal to him, the separatists do not abide by the Minsk agreement, so he is waiting on support from Washington, reports the journalist.
Since last Sunday in the East of Ukraine in full volume resumed hostilities: since 64 killed and wounded Ukrainian soldier. «But Ukrainians are suffering not only from heavy Russian weapons: on the propaganda front, the Russian army uses high technology to demoralize the enemy,» writes Bild.
Ukrainian servicemen with unknown phone numbers by the thousands come sms with threats and insults. The message in the Ukrainian language States that «Ukrainian soldiers are just meat for their commanders»; that «they are like the Germans at Stalingrad» and «you find them only when the snow melts».
As the correspondent reports, citing experts, «to mimic signals from mobile phone and mass mailing of sms-messages on thousands of gadgets you need the most modern equipment» and that equipment — state of the art military system RB-341В «Leer-3» — Russian army placed in the Donetsk region in 2015.
According to military expert Mikhail Kuznetsov, «mobile phones are not associated with this mast mobile operator, and with the emulator installed on a special truck. «Leer-3» not only can access the phone, but also to determine their location with pinpoint accuracy and reduce communication in range of the UAV «Orlan-10». The system transmits the coordinates and other information of artillery.
In response to the question of whether local separatists to use or even to produce such systems, Kuznetsov laughed: «Ordinary miners are not able to maintain such a system.» This means that «high-tech weaponry not only came from Russia, but also is serviced by Russian military specialists,» concludes the correspondent.
«Wednesday was not willing to respond to the Ukrainian government organized the evacuation of the Town, — the correspondent of The Washington Post Christian Boris: — only 145 residents boarded the bus that was to take them out of the combat zone; 88 of them were children.»
«Since Sunday there have killed six Ukrainian soldiers, another 48 were wounded, while, according to unconfirmed reports, separatists suffered heavy losses. How many victims among the civilian population, it is not clear», — is spoken in article.
According to Alex Kokcharov, analyst at IHS Jane’s, «Russia is ready to use controlled escalation in the Donbass, to demonstrate the new us administration that it controls the conflict. This is likely part of a broader Russian strategy of foreign policy and military aggression.»
However, the author points out, the escalation of violence could bring certain political benefits and administration in Kiev, drawing attention to the seemingly forgotten conflict.
Both parties hope to use to their advantage the fighting, said Alexander Clarkson, lecturer at king’s College (London): «I Have a suspicion that the Ukrainian army and government not against to actively use the effect from the Russian shelling and military operations in General. Poroshenko can now (…) to substantiate the assertion that the lifting of sanctions would be a betrayal in the face of the aggressor.»
Clarkson believes that Putin staged the «trap», «to provoke trump to take any action in connection with the attacks in the Donbass, after he has attached such great importance to partnership with Russia».
In Kiev and NATO fear that trump will conclude with Moscow a deal that would weaken U.S. support for the Ukrainian government and potentially increase freedom of hands of Russia in its attempts to destabilize Ukraine, says the blog the Cable of Foreign Policy magazine correspondent Paul Makleri.
One employee of the US defense Department told reporters that the Pentagon had been waiting an escalation of Russian aggression in Ukraine because Moscow is trying to calculate, «she said» under the administration of the trump.
Alexander Vershbow, who until last year was Deputy Secretary General of NATO, does not exclude that the Kremlin «is trying to make a test of the new administration to see whether it distanciruemsa from Kiev, and also to make it clear to Poroshenko that he will have to make the best possible deal with Russia, and this deal, of course, his political collapse.»
Employee of the U.S. defense Department said that Moscow has little reason for the practical implementation of the Minsk agreement on a ceasefire: «it is clear that the «political body» was this open, bleeding wound, which will allow [Russia] to manipulate the situation and policies of the country and thus keep Ukraine in the post-Soviet kleptocratic orbit,» reports Makleri.
The current fighting in Eastern Ukraine — «test, designed to find out whether Washington and Europe would coordinate» their actions in the crisis, says Franklin Holcomb (Institute for the Study of War).
«This bloodshed is not forced to wait the test of the stated trump’s willingness to improve relations with Russia, writes in The Guardian journalist Shaun Walker. — Kiev nervously watched the trump, who has repeatedly praised Putin and voiced the idea of lifting sanctions».
«A clear sign that US policy towards Russia can really move to a sharp change of course when trump was the lack of criticism of Russia or separatists in a recent statement, the state Department — he used to differently respond to such outbreaks, the article says. Acting press Secretary of the state Department mark Toner said the US was «deeply alarmed» by the bloodshed and called for «an immediate and durable ceasefire». However, the statement was not named the perpetrators of the events».
«State Department statement differs sharply in tone from the reviews of the U.S. mission to the OSCE, which is staffed by career diplomats and can afford not to adapt to the new mood in Washington,» says Walker.
«Russia and the separatists initiated the bloodshed in the town,’ said Kate burns, the attorney of the United States at the OSCE. We call on Russia to stop the bloodshed, to respect the ceasefire, withdraw heavy weapons and cease the occupation of new territory behind the frontline».
In Moscow officials have accused Kiev of «trying to take advantage of them provoked by the military clashes as a pretext for a full waiver of the Minsk agreements».
InoPressa. Aggravation in Ukraine: what the new US administration? 02.02.2017