After the Christmas holidays and the holidays of Ukrainians are in for an unpleasant surprise. Economists explain that January and February is a difficult month for the national currency and in this period we can expect a «peak» of the fall of the hryvnia. After the course stabiliziruemost, but in the first months of 2017, according to forecasts of economists, the dollar may cost the Ukrainians at 28.5-29 hryvnia, writes «Segodnia».
In 2015, the national currency in the first two months dropped from 24.9 to 30 hryvnia for the same period last year – from 16.6 to 20 hryvnia. In the same year, experts predict, in January-February possible devaluation from 27 to 28.5 hryvnia. And in the worst case scenario – and up to 30 hryvnia per dollar.
«In January we have to pay the IMF loan and to pay interest on state debt,» – says the President of the Ukrainian analytical center Alexander Okhrimenko.
According to the expert, repayment will have to spend about $ 800 million. These funds can take the gold and foreign exchange reserves of the country.
According to Okhrimenko, it is also planned that the loan will repay a new loan.
«At the moment the main thing – the debts. There were plans that in the beginning of this year, Ukraine will receive a new loan from the IMF and the government due to the new loan to repay the old one. And now it turns out that the loan was not given, it is possible to repay at the expense of foreign exchange reserve reserves, or at the expense of their sources,» says President of the Ukrainian analytical center.
At the moment, Ukraine’s foreign exchange reserves amount to 15,539 billion dollars, is spoken in the message of the National Bank. The volume of proved reserves at two billion dollars lower than previously planned.
«The NBU is expected that the fourth tranche from the IMF in the amount of $ 1.3 billion will go to the end of last year. In this case, and in the case of income of 600 million euros from the European Commission before the end of the year, at the end of 2016 international reserves would increase to 17.5 billion dollars. Accordingly, receipt of this funding led to the fact that the actual reserves were lower,» – said in the report of the national Bank.
If the national Bank will use to repay the loan reserve, the dollar, according to Okhrimenko, will remain in the range of 27 hryvnia, the NBU will decide to buy the currency market, the rate will jump to 28.5-30 hryvnia.
«January is a hard month. February – hard to say, there will be affected importers and the flow of money from migrant workers. If they are the same revenues as last year, we can expect a strengthening of the hryvnia, for example, at 27. But if money and the risk of this exists, then the situation will be more difficult,» – said the economist.
In February, the hryvnia exchange rate will also impact the need for purchasing energy abroad and conjuncture on external markets. As noted by the head of analytical Department of Concorde Capital Oleksandr Parashchiy, in February due to a long weekend in China (Chinese New year begins on January 28 and will be celebrated 15 days) there is a decline in the markets of ore and steel products exported by Ukraine.
«Possible seasonal surge in February, as it was in the previous three years. Then you can wait for the peak – rate can be even at 28.5 and 29 hryvnia and above. But it will be a short-term phenomenon. Hopefully in February we will get a tranche from the IMF that will positively affect the course. We know when IMF gives us the credit, exchange rate expectations are changing and the hryvnia strengthened», – says Aleksandr Parashchiy.
In this case, before the end of 2017, according to the Concorde Capital forecast, the dollar in Ukraine will cost 28,5 hryvnia, and the average for the year – 28 UAH.
«After February, the hryvnia will be strengthened and will gradually go to the level of 28.5 hryvnia to the end of the year. Obviously, in the course of impact of news about the next tranches of the IMF. February 17 should be a court of «credit Yanukovych,» there can be negative surprises. Another major factor is the result of a judicial proceeding «Naftogaz» and «Gazprom» (to be in the first half),» – says Aleksandr Parashchiy.
In the coming weeks, the national currency, most likely, will be strengthened, and the dollar will decline on different segments of the currency market approximately 0.5 hryvnia, says a senior analyst «Alpari» Vadim Iosub. Devalvatsia of the hryvnia this year connected with the return after the holidays on the currency market importers, but on Tuesday, the analyst said, the NBU has demonstrated the will to «fill» the peaks of demand in foreign currency auctions.
The hryvnia will gradually decrease to 28 per dollar by the end of the year, I’m sure Vadim Iosub. The dynamics of the currency will largely depend on the pace of reforms and related with that the next tranches of the IMF loan, the load on the «printing press», which may require recapitalization of «PrivatBank», as well as the situation in the South-East of the country and socio-political stability in General.
«At the end of last year, we witnessed how the increase in political tension quickly realized in the growth of devaluation expectations», – said the expert.
The Ministry of Finance and the national Bank predict that the dollar exchange rate this year will fluctuate in the range of 27.2-27,7 hryvnia. This is the figure laid down in the budget for 2017. This forecast is doubt among financial analysts. As the Chairman of the Committee of economists Andriy Novak, the budget for last year laid the dollar within the limits of 24,1-24,4 hryvnia, but by the end of the year exceeded 27 hryvnia.
«It is impossible to make forecast of the hryvnia. For prediction there is no base forecasting – exchange rate strategies of the government and the NBU. The fact that NBU calls the strategy of a floating exchange rate – attempts to influence the exchange rate situation. If there was a directional strategy, it was possible to predict what expects the national Bank», – said the economist.
We will remind, the national Bank abandoned the fixed exchange rate of the hryvnia in 2014. Later, the head of the NBU Valeria Gontareva said that the fixed rate will not «even in peacetime», and the floating exchange rate counteracts the external challenges and shocks.
By the way, the hryvnia exchange rate depend on gasoline prices, some medications, flats, imported equipment and products. As says the Deputy Director of STC «Psyche» Gennady Ryabtsev, each 10 cents devaluation of the hryvnia to create the economic justification to raise the cost of gasoline at the gas station at 7 cents. Even with the collapse in oil prices, the devaluation of the hryvnia could lead to a rise in price of fuel.
Alexander Okhrimenko notes: the dollar also affected the price of household chemicals.
«Expensive imported goods, and medicines, fruits, fish. And products associated with chemistry. As we import chemicals, from toothpaste, finishing plastic clothespins because this is all or is done with chemicals, or imported. The same clothes. Garments are made of imported components,» says Okhrimenko.
Imported goods become more expensive in proportion to the devaluation, the ex-Minister of economy Viktor Suslov.
«We have a full proportionality from the devaluation of the exchange rate rising prices as does the price in euros or dollars, as for the import, and simply multiplied the rate in the translation of the hryvnia. Plus and taxes increase. So the prices are still rising slightly more than devaluation,» says the honored economist of Ukraine.
Previously, the bankers have predicted the hryvnia exchange rate in 2017: it will still be volatile.
And at the end of December the national Bank explained the fluctuations of the hryvnia. Then quotes hryvnia to the dollar on the interbank market established at the level of 27.15/27,35 UAH/USD.
In the first months of 2017 Ukrainians can expect the dollar surge to 29 UAH 11.01.2017