The bill of the Cabinet of Ministers is not a full-fledged pension reform, but rather a light cosmetic repair. But it will give a slight decrease in the load on the state budget that the International monetary Fund is already positive. About this in comments to the edition «GORDON» the head of the Committee of economists of Ukraine Andriy Novak.
«From a financial point of view, in Ukraine now there is a critical need in the tranche of the IMF. For the country the important fact of the continuing cooperation with the Fund. To the financial world we – the territory of high risk, because we have a war. If a country is not going to work, the IMF, almost no one will work. If now the IMF will suddenly stop cooperation, Ukraine is considerably more expensive financial resources from the international market. For the same Eurobonds interest will be much higher,» – said the expert.
In his opinion the focus on pension reform right now is because of the lack of progress in the consideration of the bill on pension reform could lead to the resignation of the Prime Minister.
«The emphasis on pension reform, can be explained by lobizm of the Cabinet and the Prime Minister of Ukraine Vladimir Groisman. At the time, maybe without thinking, he made a big political announcement: he promised to resign if the Parliament did not vote for pension reform before the 1st of December. Now many political forces in the Parliament want to bring the situation to the resignation of the Prime Minister. That is why the bill was introduced thousands of totally formal amendments to delay the process of adoption of the law. It is possible that after IMF officials Groisman tries to influence the Parliament», – said the economist.
He noted, for the IMF it is important to see the positive changes that will reduce the burden on the state budget than the reforms.
«With regard to the requirements for pension reform, it is necessary to remind that the IMF mission was here in the spring. And Ukraine has exposed the so-called 11 structural beacons, which is necessary to change legislation. Among them pension reform. But it is, in fact, is not a key requirement. If at least one of the 11 lighthouses of Ukraine will demonstrate progress, it will be enough to continue cooperation. For the Fund is important only to the solvency of the state budget. The fact that now the government gives for pension reform, in fact, is not. Indeed, the pension system will not change. As sibling solidarity was, and still is. Changing only the conditions of retirement and calculation of benefits. It is rather easy cosmetic repairs. But this repair will give a slight decrease in the load on the state budget, about 7-8 billion UAH. could be 10 billion UAH. that the IMF has a positive,» concluded Novak.
July 13, the Verkhovna Rada adopted in first reading the government bill No. 6614 on amendments to laws of Ukraine concerning increase of pensions, known as the «pension reform law». She, in particular, implies the elimination of the taxation of pensions to working pensioners, the abolition of the special conditions of retirement, the gradual elimination of the deficit of the Pension Fund.
13 may Groysman declared that will retire, if you do not spend the pension reform.
On September 28 briefing in Washington, Deputy head of the communications Department of the IMF William Murray said that the implementation of the pension reform is critical to review the program of cooperation of Ukraine and the IMF.
Ukraine and the IMF signed a Memorandum of economic and financial policies which the country should undertake in the framework of the EFF in March 2015. In April 2017, the Fund has allocated Ukraine the fourth tranche of $1 billion.
In may the IMF said that for completion of the review of the EFF would expect from the Ukrainian authorities ensure that parliamentary support land and pension reforms, anti-corruption bills and the intensification of the privatization process. However, scheduled for June–July 2017 the fifth tranche of financial assistance did not come. As stated in July, Prime Minister Vladimir Groysman, the IMF tranche in the amount of $1.9 billion deferred until the end of 2017, because Parliament does not have time to take the necessary for granting the loan bills before the start of the summer holidays.
According to the Deputy head of the National Bank of Ukraine Kateryna Rozhkova, the IMF mission planned to visit Kiev in the second half of September. On 25 September it became known that the visit of the mission has been postponed indefinitely. «We are in constant contact with the authorities. When will we see a positive basis for the completion of the revision of the program, then we will decide the date,» said the IMF representative in Ukraine Jost Longman.
Groysman promised to leave if the pension reform will not be accepted until 1 December. Now Parliament want to bring the situation to the resignation of economist Novak 29.09.2017