«It is obvious that the resumption of fighting in Eastern Ukraine has some connection with a political event that occurred nine days earlier — with the inauguration of the trump as the President of the United States,» — wrote from Kiev freelancer Isaac Webb in an article for the American publication Foreign Policy. However, according to the author, influence the election of trump’s variation of war and peace in the Donbass has a downside: according to analysts, it not only strengthened Russian aggression, but Kiev did less inclined to compromise amid uncertainty about Washington’s policy in the Ukrainian conflict.
«Since then, in September of last year Ukraine has once again abandoned the policy of breeding strength, she began to make increasingly frequent occurrence in the «gray area» — neutral territory between the forces of the Ukrainian government and separatists along the front lines. Both sides fought for her as long as I signed a failed peace agreement in September 2014,» says Webb. The separatists also recently began to attack on this buffer zone. Alexander hug, Deputy head of the Special OSCE monitoring mission in Ukraine, expressed his concern over the accumulation of heavy artillery and troops positions in the «gray area». He warned that the agreement on a ceasefire on the ground can push both sides, including Ukraine, to the creation of «new realities» in the territory, then to negotiate from a stronger position, says the article.
«At the same time, the administration of the President of Ukraine took the escalation to remind Trump of the price of rapprochement with Russian President Vladimir Putin«, — said the author. «Being a massive bombardment. How can you give a hint about the lifting of sanctions in such circumstances,» given in the article the statement of Petro Poroshenko in a video published online 31 Jan.
Despite the search for ways to influence the administration of the tramp, «the Ukrainian government began tentatively to explore pathways to peace in Donbass», said Webb. Poroshenko 30 January met with German Chancellor Angela Merkel in Berlin, in particular, to discuss how «to get to work with the Minsk agreement,» said the author Alain Hetmanczuk, head of the Kiev analytical center «Institute of world politics.» Before the election trump, Ukraine refused to make political concessions and to hold local elections in the breakaway regions, while Russia and the separatists will not take from a front line heavy artillery and return of Kiev control over the Eastern border. However, according to Hetmanczuk, on the background of the election trump and vacillating support in Washington «Kiev is ready to consider less-than-perfect agreement, if Russia makes it clear that she is willing to compromise — although Ukraine did not specify the details.»
«Influential Ukrainian oligarch Victor Pinchuk, — says the author — has published a column in The Wall Street Journal December 29, which caused a storm in Kiev, his argument that Ukraine needs to go on a «painful compromise for peace» with the Pro-Russian separatists are not allowing that Crimea «got in the way» of a peace agreement, after the elections in the occupied territories and abandoning aspirations to become an EU member». Politicians and MPs in Ukraine have accused Pinchuk Foundation in support of Putin, turning it into a pariah. However, according to Webb, numerous sources close to the presidential administration, say that the column oligarch «was planned with the help of political consultants working for Poroshenko to test people’s willingness to compromise» and to say what I want to hear from trump, with the aim to strengthen relations with the new administration of the White house. However, apparently, Pinchuk and Poroshenko erroneously assessed public opinion: «the main lesson of history with Pinchuk was that compromise proposal remains provocative in Ukraine,» the author writes.
«For some in Kiev to be a hardliner is synonymous with a successful political strategy,» notes Webb. Among those who agitate in favor of promoting Ukrainian forces in the «gray area» — Alexander Turchinov, Secretary of the security Council and defense of Ukraine. «This is a «creeping offensive», as this policy called military analysts and Ukrainian media, apparently aimed at obtaining political support that part of society that critical to the Minsk agreements and would prefer a more solid line in Eastern Ukraine», — stated in the article. According to the author, the popularity of the position of people like Turchinov has pushed even those who at first were inclined to peace, and to take a militant line.
«The lack of opposition belligerent rhetoric Poroshenko says that many support the idea that peace can be achieved only through war, — the author notes. — However, as taught by the previous Minsk agreements, to dictate the peace terms Russia and the separatists will not Ukraine: she was forced to take the «Minsk-1 and Minsk-2″ on the terms of Russia due to large-scale losses at the hands of Russian forces in the bloody battles in Ilovaisk and Debaltsevo, respectively.» According to Webb, «if in Kiev will not prevail more conciliatory approach, this paradigm will be repeated for all subsequent peace agreements».
«While the majority in Washington and elsewhere see the habit in the last peak of violence, the responsibility of an emboldened Kremlin. However, the conflict in Eastern Ukraine — a complex reality and is heated by internal factors in the same way that external» — summarizes the author. «At the moment in Ukraine there is no party in the world» — leads Webb in conclusion, a review of Mikhail Minakov, President, Foundation for good politics and the professors of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy.
Foreign Policy. Kiev is also fueling the war in Eastern Ukraine 07.02.2017