Foreign Affairs. Ukraine is preparing to Trump

Two days after the election Donald trump President of the United States the head of the Ukrainian National anti-corruption Bureau Artem Sytnik declared the termination of investigation into alleged receipt of secret ally of trump Paul Manafort $ 12.7 million from «Party of regions», according to Isaac Webb
Foreign Policy. Sytnik said that his Bureau «has enough of its own officials.» «But the subtext of his statements was clear, says Webb. — The continuation of the investigation into the Manafort could jeopardize Ukraine’s relations with the next US administration».

«Kiev hopes to establish with the impending administration trump the relations under which Ukraine will continue to receive the support they received when the President was Barack Obama. Ukrainian officials openly Express the hope that the Republican party, which has historically been on the side of their country, will not change his attitude and with the trump. However, they are also concerned about how Ukraine fits in newborn policies of the elected President. If Ukraine wants to establish close ties with the administration of the tramp, she will have to ignore the fact that trump praised Russian President Vladimir Putin and misunderstands Russia’s actions on Ukrainian soil. Will require significant diplomatic and political efforts to convince the U.S. to support Ukraine, especially those Republicans who agree with neoisolationism platform trump. The extension of sanctions imposed on Russia will be considered in March, and Kiev has little time to attempt to convince trump to modify the foreign policy agenda, which he outlined during his campaign, and not to allow his admiration for Putin has turned into a policy of compromise» — says the article.

November 18, Obama and several European leaders have issued a joint statement on readiness to keep sanctions on Russia until it complied with its obligations under the Minsk II agreement. This Declaration reflects the desire of Obama to provide Ukraine with support before he leaves the post. «However, it is only symbolically important: the Ukrainians still fear that the card will refuse from sanctions when their validity period expires in March,» — says the author.

«There is also the issue of financial support that Washington provides to Kiev. As American sanctions, the validity of the bill of Congress about the short-term costs, the adoption of which is scheduled for 9 December, will expire in March. This will give the administration trump the control of Federal spending. Financial budget for 2017 provides 952 million dollars on «opposition to Russian aggression», and most of the money allocated to Ukraine for a program aimed at «the improvement of democracy and the recovery of power, boosting defence capabilities, promote European integration and energy security.» If the administration of the tramp, starting in March, will cut off this funding, the government of Ukraine will lose a critical source of economic support. In addition, it will lose an important stimulus for change within the country, as foreign aid from the United States and other countries has long been the main encouragement for the ongoing Ukraine reforms,» says Webb.

Obama expressed hope before the end of his presidential term to achieve a peaceful settlement in Ukraine. Webb believes this is unlikely due to the fact that the Kremlin probably won’t reach an agreement before next year’s elections in Germany and France, which can win candidates seeking to serve Russia.

«Ukrainian officials are likely to try to convince his colleagues in France and Germany to continue to participate in the Minsk peace process, regardless of the outcome of the elections in these countries. It is especially important for Ukraine, the preservation of the European sanctions. As stated by senior Ukrainian officials, «they’re the only issue that could bring Russia to the negotiating table». However, the possibilities of sanctions are limited: although they can to convince the Kremlin to participate in negotiations, they are not sufficiently effective to allow Kiev or its Western partners dictate the terms of the peace settlement,» said Webb.

«As for the United States, there is evidence that Poroshenko plans to go to Washington in February, a few weeks before consideration of the renewal of sanctions, the article says. — If Poroshenko will not be able to lobby trump directly, to do it on his behalf [the Ambassador of Ukraine to USA]Valeriy Chaly… the Ukrainians know that the Republican party has historically supported the sovereignty of their country and this legacy still resonates with officials in Kiev. Due to the fact that the Republican party is growing isolationism, Kiev may appeal not only to her but also to her fellow Democrats».

Translation InoPressa




Foreign Affairs. Ukraine is preparing to Trump 30.11.2016

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Ноябрь 30th, 2016 by
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