Financial Times. In anticipation of the G20 summit Russia raises the stakes in Ukraine
In July there were signs of increasing hostilities in the East of Ukraine, writes the Financial Times. «Ukraine and its Western allies see, and more disturbing event: increasing the number of regular Russian troops in the Crimea and along the Russian-Ukrainian border», — continue the journalists Sam Jones and Roman Olearchyk.
«Ukrainian intelligence agencies say that separatists in the Donbass attached regiment of the Russian air defense», — says the Financial Times.
«Preparing for a non-nuclear conflict between Russia and Ukraine is accelerating, and the likelihood of open war is rapidly growing,» — said in the report of the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) from last Thursday.
«There are very clear signals from Russia, speaking about the readiness of Russian party to the escalation and the splitting of the limits» — said the expert ISW Kathleen Weinberger. And yet she adds: «Russia shows us quite openly, threatening 20%, but leaves unclear 80% of their actions.»
The expert stressed that this ambivalence is beneficial for Russia, but the real invasion — perhaps not. This assessment is shared by many in Ukraine and in the West.
«I do not expect full-scale military invasion at the moment, because the loss on the part of Putin would be great, and victory is not guaranteed,» says former Deputy chief of the General staff of Ukraine Igor Romanenko. «He is [trying] to force international leaders to make concessions to them start eased sanctions and forced Ukraine to accept the Minsk agreement in its interpretation».
The newspaper says Russia wants the Donbass first elections were held, and then imposed a cease-fire.
According to Romanenko, the Russian troops built up on the eve of the G20 summit, scheduled for September 4. At the summit Putin will inevitably discuss with Merkel and Hollande the situation in Ukraine.
The article presents the opinion of an unnamed «senior European intelligence.» The newspaper recounts his words: «Russia increases, it reduces the tension in the region (as they did in the past) on the eve of another round of diplomatic talks. «Rattling sabers» ventured to give the Minsk agreements a new interpretation, favorable to Russia.»
The newspaper says: «Although such a task might preclude outdoor land grabbing, it does not interfere with a serious military conflict. In fact, many intelligence analysts believe that its implementation probably relies on the use of force.»
Analyst Alex Kokcharov (Markit IHS) expects a controlled escalation along the entire «line of contact». «Politically, if the separatists take more territory, it will be bad for Russia in the negotiations, but provoking the Ukraine on fighting, not necessarily accompanied by it, she could make a profit… They want to create the impression that Kiev is an unreliable partner, and to weaken his support in the West.»
According to Koksharova, fights can erupt on 24 August, the day of the 25th anniversary of independence of Ukraine: «if Putin will be 10 days before [the summit] G20».
The newspaper notes: «European countries and so are tired of the Ukrainian question. Perhaps Putin claims that the increasing use of force — and provoked a furious reaction in Ukraine — forced the Europeans to waver and alter the Minsk agreement to his benefit.»
Financial Times. In anticipation of the G20 summit Russia raises the stakes in Ukraine 18.08.2016