February 19. Press review. The coalition split: what’s next?

«In Parliament there was «green coalition», — Mykola Tomenko from the parliamentary rostrum tells whether to vote for no confidence in the government Yatsenyuk on Tuesday, February 16. The ex-Deputy Chairman of the faction PPO, obviously, hints at certain financial bonuses, which could get MPs for ignoring the resolution of no confidence in the Cabinet.

The government has ceased to be a coalition. Ministers expelled from their home parties. Now it is the government of one man. The man, whose support both in society and in the parliamentary coalition is within statistical error. And if only one vote can be negotiated and Kolomoisky, and Akhmetov, and Pinchuk, such as «mobilizing voters» can be carried out daily for each vote? «Green coalition» easy to assemble. But how much it costs to keep each session week?

On Wednesday morning the session hall of the Parliament was almost empty. Single MPs on accusations of the presiding judge Andriy Parubiy, which, they say, should not talk about «plot», «scenario» and «representation», and you just have to go to work, answered simply: the place where everything is bought and sold, is called not «the Parliament».

No bill or resolution on the day BP was not accepted. On Wednesday evening Poroshenko again came to the meeting with his faction. The conversation was Frank and even harsh. Its main result, as told the media Yuriy Lutsenko: if Rada fails to send the government in resignation, he has to do himself. Or suggest a new government with a completely new program.

However, to do Yatsenyuk refuses. The situation is solid zugzwang, not only for the government and Parliament, but for the whole country. And the longer the current situation the parliamentary-governmental turbulence, the worse it can be both economic and political consequences. The rapid decline of the economy and the hryvnia, the escalation of the military aggression of militants in the Donbas, the frustration of our Western partners in the adequacy of the Ukrainian political elite, the risk of termination of funding of the Ukrainian economy the International monetary Fund…

And all this — on the eve of the three-week parliamentary «Besseling holidays». And most importantly — the catastrophic deficit of trust in the Ukrainian authorities not only our Western partners and the Ukrainian society. After all, the legitimacy of any public institution primarily determined by the level of support among its citizens. And «green coalition», they just will never support, writes Yegor Checherinda the article «Yatsenyuk and his «green coalition» in the newspaper «Ukraina Moloda».

After Batkivshchyna and Samopomich announced its withdrawal from the coalition, it was only the Block Poroshenko and the popular front. In total, these two factions of 217 deputies, and in order to be called a coalition needs a minimum of 226. This allowed Yulia Tymoshenko to declare that the coalition has ceased to exist. But not so simple. To exit the coalition statement is not enough; you also have to withdraw its signature under the coalition agreement. And, according to the head of the faction PPO Yuriy Lutsenko, the radicals Lyashko, announced the withdrawal from the coalition in the autumn of last year, this is still not done. Thus, BPP, national front and the Radical party together have 238 deputies bayonets, and the coalition continues to exist. In addition, there are MPs who have been excluded from the coalition factions, but their signatures under the coalition agreement are still. On the other hand, MPs insisting on a withdrawal from the parliamentary coalition – only this week such statements, it was already five.

The legal consequences of this situation are unclear, as the coalition is governed by only a few lines in the Constitution, the Verkhovna Rada Regulations relevant chapters was removed in October 2010 that gives space for legal interpretations. In any case, on the dissolution of the coalition may declare only the speaker Volodymyr Groisman, and he recalled in response to the statement of Yulia Tymoshenko.

As in the past few months, extremely situational, for each vote in the Parliament will form a new configuration of fractions. In any case, even if the coalition will continue to exist on paper, in practice the leaders of the PPB and the PF before every important vote to gain the necessary 226 «for» have to persuade the representatives of other factions and independent deputies. Thus, in light of the ongoing conflict between the PPB and the PF, the presidential faction not necessarily support the Prime Minister’s initiatives, and Vice versa. Moreover, inside the PPO has several Autonomous groups, for example, «Anticorruption platform», whose relations with the leadership of the faction has deteriorated after backroom games around the resignation of the Cabinet. In General, any resonant bills will pass through Parliament with even greater difficulty than before.

If the agreement does not, and the HRC will finally withdraw their signatures under the coalition agreement, BPP and the NF are in a difficult situation, because 226 mandates from them does not reach. A possible solution is to join the Bloc of Petro Poroshenko loyal to Bank independent deputies. Another discussed option is the reformatting of the «Will of the people» in the group «Our land» and join the majority on the rights of a faction. But in this case, the power will be guaranteed in your address accusations of collaboration with members of the «people’s Will» the ex-regionals, and the overall design still will have a margin of safety.

The leaders of the PPB and the PF have continued to pass each other accountable for staff turnover in the Cabinet. If the deputies from BPP talk about the «reset» of the government, the Prime Minister says only «deformirovanii». Many supporters of the President to publicly demand the resignation of Yatsenyuk and Yuriy Lutsenko announced a possible mistrust not the whole Cabinet, but only its head, although such a possibility is not provided by law. Unblock process can only resigning the coalition agreement and the formation of a new coalition with the obligatory account of interests of personnel of the wishes of the President, the Prime Minister and future members of the coalition. But at this time of great movements in that direction on a multi-format negotiations was not achieved.

Since Cabinet received a six-month immunity from dismissal, and the Prime Minister to leave voluntarily is not going, the only way for early elections is the statement of the head of the Parliament that, under the coalition agreement is less than 226 signatures, and the coalition ceased to exist. From this moment begins the countdown – the new coalition will have to be created during the month. If this does not happen, the President will have the right to dissolve the Parliament and call an election within a period of 60 days. While this option is on Bank notes, still hoping to resolve the crisis through negotiations, appealing to the position of Western countries and the IMF. In addition, the dissolution of the Parliament in any case only the right, but not the duty of the President. Virtually incapacitated by the Parliament and the Cabinet of Ministers suspended the country can live a long time, writes Milan Lelić in the article «Operation «Coalition». A brief educational program on the current political situation» in the publication «Focus».

The answer to the question who will benefit from the collapse of a coalition depends on the goals that have set themselves the political forces represented in Parliament. If it’s early parliamentary elections, they have the least interest Petro Poroshenko and Arseniy Yatsenyuk. In addition, the possible choices automatically mean slowing down the pace of reforms in the country, which will cause an extremely negative reaction from the West.

But in the latter — day opposition «Batkivschyna», the Radical party, «Samopomich» and even the Opposition bloc — the chances of a good result in the elections a lot more. There is an interest both supporters of Oleg Lyashko. Importantly, this interest is beneficial to sell. For example, in exchange for Ministerial portfolios.

Willingness to join a new majority Oleg Lyashko confirmed. If they agree, then the radicals in the coalition piggy Bank can add by 21 votes. This is sufficient for its existence, but not enough to be fully confident of life. In addition, in recent years in unison with the PPO and «Popular front» voted 15-20 independent deputies, 10-12 representatives of the group «the will of the people» and 7-10 deputies from the group «Vidrodzhennya».

«The situation in the group «the will of the people» and «Vidrodzhennya» was completely uncontrolled. It is likely that the group will scatter, and the General backbone of the faction will be created, which will be included in the coalition,» — said on condition of anonymity one of the «free» members.

However, experts believe that the options for conservation coalition mass.

«The coalition can also be created through the amendments to the rules of Parliament. Deputies from other fractions create a new parliamentary group and be part of the new coalition. Through the modification of the rules can make participation in the coalition of MPs on an individual basis, that is unaffiliated members of Parliament», — considers the political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko.

According to experts, the President must pursue the reformatting of the government.

«The President is interested in preserving the coalition, and there are a dozen reasons. As far as I know, negotiations are underway about how to encourage Arseniy Yatsenyuk to advocate for the reformation of the government. If there is a vacancy in the portfolios of Ministers, it will be easy to lure into a coalition of «new old» allies», — considers the political scientist Volodymyr Bondarenko. Write about this Elena Galagi, Viktor Timofeev’s article «the Collapse of the coalition: Poroshenko and Yatsenyuk are looking for new friends» in the newspaper «KP in Ukraine».

February 19. Press review. The coalition split: what’s next? 19.02.2016

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