The hryvnia has been falling for more than a month, but in recent days, the devaluation has accelerated sharply. The national currency depreciates against the background of increased demand for the dollar and the deficit, writes «Focus».
From 16 to 19 November, on the interbank market the hryvnia sank 80 cents, to 23,90/24,02 UAH/USD. (buy/sell). In the cash market is experiencing a similar dynamic on 18 November, the dollar on average bought is 24.05 UAH/USD., sold for 24,95 UAH/USD., when in the beginning of the week the average rate was $ 23,77/24,74 UAH/USD. (buy/sell).
The rising dollar is associated with a decline in the supply of foreign currency.
«It is highly likely that periods of instability, exporters started to hold the input of currency earnings to the country. When this pent-up demand in the foreign exchange market is quite large,» explains the chief of Department on work with debt tools in the local market of investment company Concorde Capital Yuriy Tovstenko.
The demand for foreign currency fueled including the second round of local elections.
«Elections are generally accompanied by increased demand for foreign currency. Also could affect the course of additional emission of the hryvnia to the Fund for guaranteeing deposits of natural persons and NJSC «Naftogaz of Ukraine», — said the expert of financial consulting Department of Pro Capital Investment company Julia Nazarenko.
«The main source of pressure on the hryvnia will be the acceleration of expenses of the budget on the Treasury’s account had accumulated substantial funds either already spent or will be spent before the end of the year. Systemic factor — the fall in world prices for resources, which is reflected in our exports. In addition, the IMF and other donors have put Ukraine on the pause before the adoption of the budget in 2016» , — said Dmytro Boyarchuk, the Director of «CASE-Ukraine».
The NBU does not see preconditions for further significant exchange rate fluctuations in the foreign exchange market.
«The current account of the balance of payments is balanced, and we see no risks for its imbalance», — said Deputy Chairman of the NBU Oleg Churiy.
The regulator believes that the cheapening of domestic exports due to falling world prices of primary products will be offset by the conservation of foreign exchange inflows from the sale of agricultural products and reduction of prices on imported energy carriers.
Most financial analysts expect that the NBU will not allow the hryvnia to fall heavily, and referred to two possible scenarios. The first is the stabilization of the interbank rate at 23-23,5 UAH/USD.. the Second smooth devaluation up to UAH 25/USD. then the NBU will have to intervene in the foreign exchange market.
Note, in the draft budget for 2016 laid course 24,1 UAH/USD., which corresponds to the current trends in the foreign exchange market.
Experts: hryvnia falls, Ukraine does not have enough currency 19.11.2015