What we have today: the President asks the Prime Minister to leave, because the activities of the team of Yatsenyuk does not trust 70% of the population, but he does not initiate his resignation. The Parliament recognises the work of the Cabinet is poor but can’t dismiss. The Prime Minister himself does not want to leave. What is the way out of the political crisis?
Scenario 1. Early elections
Volodymyr Groysman asked MPs during the week to find out the «deepening political crisis».
«Only one way out — we walk out of the coalition,» — said the leader of the faction «Batkivshchyna» Yulia Tymoshenko. Single application for withdrawal from the parliamentary majority wrote two more MP Sergey Kaplin and Alexander Sugonyako.
«Personally, I think the presence of «Self-help» in the coalition is impractical, for the fraction not speak», — the MP said Semyon Semenchenko. Supporters of the mayor of Lviv Andrey Sadovyi on Thursday allegedly state that they leave the coalition. In this case, the coalition will crumble.
«If within one month not formed a new coalition, the President will have the right to dissolve the Verkhovna Rada. And then there will be early parliamentary elections», — says Pavel Pynzenik.
Representatives of Pro-presidential team claim that the President promised not to allow early elections.
«Peter clearly said the elections he will not allow», — told one of the deputies of the MFP.
Scenario 2. New team premiere Yatsenyuk
Judging by the last public an application of a PPO, the country will scare early parliamentary elections, a telling detail that the election will hurt the economy. And all these horror stories only to be forced Yatsenyuk for a radical reformation of the government.
«What happens next? Yatsenyuk, apparently, will be forced to admit that this government has no public support and are Happy and have self-initiate the update,» the MP from the PPO Olga Belkova.
And, most likely, the new government of Arseniy Yatsenyuk will include several people’s deputies from BPP. It is no coincidence that under the guise of discussion of Yatsenyuk’s resignation was passed the controversial law 3700. The document allows party leaders to clean up the electoral lists of political parties after the announcement of results of elections. As you know, the fraction of the PPO was a «canned»: none of the deputies could not go to the government, as in the case of nursing it would have taken the lawyer Igor Kolomoisky Andrei Bogdan.
If today or tomorrow Arseniy Yatsenyuk will speak for a personnel change of the government, Samopomich in the coalition will remain, write Elena Galagi, Viktor Timofeev in the article «change Or Prime command, or the country goes to the polls» in the newspaper «KP in Ukraine».
According to experts, the main objective of Yulia Tymoshenko – election, and the fate of the coalition depends on the position of «Samopomich» and whether to agree the PPB and the PF.
In fact, Tymoshenko goes on the warpath, because after yesterday’s events in Parliament, she realized that the redistribution of portfolios in the Cabinet her interest is unlikely to be taken into account, the Director of the center for political analysis «Stratagem» Yuri Romanenko.
And the time to care just perfect, adds Professor of political science at the Kyiv Mohyla Academy, scientific Director of the Foundation «deminiciativy» Oleksiy Haran. «Now, obviously, Tymoshenko decided that this was the opportune moment to play on the unpopularity of the government is to motivate its way out of the opposition,» he said. The expert added that the withdrawal of the «Batkivshchyna» fundamentally changes nothing, because she, being in the coalition, was in opposition to it.
And now, as the Director of strategic consulting Berta Communications Taras Berezovets, the moment of truth for «Samopomich». «If they follow after the «Batkivshchyna» parliamentary coalition will fall apart automatically. The threshold of the votes of the PPB and the PF will be below 226. Therefore, or the new coalition (which is unlikely), or re-election. The Garden in case of preservation of the coalition will be «Golden share», – he wrote in Facebook.
But even if the faction and decides to leave the coalition, it does not mean automatic re-election, says Oleksiy Haran. «If «Samopomich says the withdrawal will be more difficult, but I don’t exclude that the coalition can be maintained. The key is whether the understanding of the PPB and the PF, which with the votes of individual deputies can keep the minimum required majority that the coalition has survived without re-election,» said the analyst.
But this requires that changes were made in the VR regulations, says Volodymyr Fesenko.
The experts noted that further negotiations on the conservation or reformatting of the coalition will also affect the issue of the restart of the government itself – everything will depend on the configuration that will eventually be built in the Parliament.
Oleksiy Haran also believes that Poroshenko will not oppose the resignation of Yatsenyuk. That, however, does not exclude the possibility, when Yatsenyuk remains at least for a while, adds Volodymyr Fesenko. «The President, taking into account the maintenance of the political stability and the necessity of maintaining cooperation with the IMF will be ready to continue to work with Yatsenyuk, but Yatsenyuk will be forced to cooperate with the President and his faction – without the support of the PPO no government law will not pass Parliament,» said Volodymyr Fesenko.
In the end, according to the analyst, the authorities will try to updated in the government at least half of the Ministers were the people in the West would be perceived as technocrats and reformers, not as party minions.
Volodymyr Fesenko added that Poroshenko is critical that the position of first-Vice-Premier (now vacant) took a representative of his team, writes Denis Skvortsov in the article «What will happen with the coalition, the Cabinet and whether re-elections are Glad: the forecasts of experts» in the newspaper «Today».
For the resignation of the command of the Parliament voted 97 PPB deputies, against – 0, abstained – 10, not voted – 10, 19 – no. With a few minutes earlier to recognize the unsatisfactory work of the Cabinet, voted 120 members of the presidential bloc. In 15 minutes the necessary votes suddenly vanished.
«Fifteen minutes later, at 20:05, the vote is a much more important issue – a vote of no confidence in the government, — tells the Deputy about what had happened the PPO Sergey Leshchenko. — After which there will be a very specific consequence of the change of the chief Executive. This is the moment when it shall be voted for the President’s overarching question – resignation of the government, what he called a few hours earlier. And for the fraction of the PPO gives… on 22 votes less. Not for two voices, and at twenty-two! Which disappeared somewhere within 15 minutes.»
Leshchenko, also part of the PPB faction, calls this «demarche» internal collusion between members: all those whose votes were not enough to dislodge the Prime Minister, one way or another connected with the President, many of them are businessmen who are afraid to provoke the wrath of Poroshenko.
Yulia Tymoshenko claimed that the deputies offered 1 million dollars for something that they did not vote for the resignation of the Cabinet. «It’s really scary because there was a mass buying up,» said the leader of «Batkivshchyna».
That vote was bought, says the PPB and the people’s Deputy Sergey Kaplinalso left the coalition this morning with a colleague in the faction Oleksandr Sugonyako. Also Kaplin argues that during yesterday’s vote was the arrangement with the oligarchs.
The people’s Deputy Andrey Vadatursky says: at the meeting of the faction of the lawmakers was informed that on the issue of resignation of the government of the PPB need to give 95-100 votes. «What is not explained, he says. — Those to whom it was reported, every half an hour I said: «did You change your point of view?» And here is the result of the PPB – 97 votes. To sacrifice the party for the sake of something, for the sake of money streams? What kind of corruption can be said? Now we have launched a bomb, which I don’t think anyone will be able to control. There is no trust». This writes Alexander Gorchinskiy in the article «Poroshenko against Poroshenko. Why I voted against the resignation of the government, deputies of the presidential faction» in the edition «New time».
Benefit from behind-the-scenes manipulations were the President and the Prime Minister. So, Petro Poroshenko at the time postponed the collapse of the legislative and Executive powers, opening the way to receive the long-awaited money from the West. The President’s appeal to the Prosecutor General Viktor Shokina to retire in the PPB is also interpreted as indicative of the step towards Brussels and Washington, where Shokina called one of the main obstacles to reform and the fight against corruption. Poroshenko kept a long time for overloading the public Prosecutor and used that trump card at the last moment.
Moreover, in its call for a complete restart of the Cabinet Poroshenko has shifted the responsibility for the fate of the government to the Parliament. Because technically he did what I could: persistently urged the Prime Minister to leave his faction organized the collection of signatures, and largely even voted for resignation of the Cabinet. In turn, Arseniy Yatsenyuk achieved the main thing — has left the Premiership, having received a six-month immunity from dismissal.
Now, when the political aggravation in the form of a possible resignation of the Cabinet on the left from the agenda of the Rada, the crisis of the Central power became chronic. The Cabinet of Ministers from now on, even from a formal point of view has no support in Parliament.
If the example of Tymoshenko supporters will follow «Samopomich» (and centrifugal tendencies in the faction is stronger), the coalition will cease even their formal existence. Then, if the two largest factions — the PPO and «Popular front» — you will not be able to get back the coalition of the radical Oleg Lyashko, they will have to go the extra mile. For example, to quickly entice into its ranks the loyal faction. However, even while thinning the ranks of the presidential faction, because the number of dissatisfied «party line» after combinations with pseudostable of the Cabinet has increased: two deputies have written applications for withdrawal from the PPB.
However, for the President it is not critical. Because the background of the Cabinet and semi-paralyzed Parliament, he remains the most capable figure. And this is a great bonus for Poroshenko in the eyes of Ukrainians and in the eyes of the West.
On the other hand, none of the reasons that initially triggered the crisis remain unresolved. A complete lack of trust between political actors and the struggle for influence on Executive power do not allow to discard the scenario of early elections as the most simple but the most radical way out of the crisis. Because capable a coalition government is possible only under condition of unity of the parliamentary coalition. This is not, and therefore requires a different format of the coalition. All the elections, writes Milan Lelić in the article «Artificial immunity. Why Poroshenko and Yatsenyuk entered into a political conspiracy» in the publication «Focus».
18 February. Press review. Medically destroys nedostaje. Unhappy with all 18.02.2016