International rating Agency Fitch Ratings days Ukraine has exposed a long-awaited positive assessment, noting the weakening of the dependence of our country from external funding. «Ukraine’s international reserves by supporting bilateral and multilateral creditors, of some improvement in export prices, the strengthening of confidence in the domestic market and increase the flexibility of the exchange rate reached a volume covering about 3.5 months of current payments in foreign currency» — experts of the Agency. They also stress that the presence on the Treasury account about $ 1.5 billion «allows Ukraine to cover the shortfall in external payments in the short term».
The Agency notes that the liquidity ratio of Ukraine remains weak. Its analysts believe that further funding from the International monetary Fund and other international partners will depend on the progress of the authorities ‘ structural reforms, the implementation of which is subject to risk.
Meanwhile, the regulatory reform of the financial sector yet stalled, though in July of this year the Verkhovna Rada adopted in first reading a draft law designed to consolidate the functions of state regulation of financial services markets. The document stipulates that after its adoption, most of the regulatory functions of the relevant markets (for example, insurance companies, credit unions, pawn shops) will go to the national Bank. The other part of the financial market (private pension funds, funds of operations with real estate) will go to the National Commission on securities and stock market (NKTSBFR).
In Ukraine, the current model of the financial sector, historically as ancientrocka. After all, the banking system in our country, which, according to statistics, account for 75% of the assets of the financial sector dominates other segments. As a result, it primarily reflects any irregularities. But, on the other hand, from confidence in the banks depends on the attitude of the population and the stability of all other sectors of the financial system.
This is particularly evident in current conditions when in less than two years the banking market has gone nearly 80 institutions. And this has not only affected trust in banks, but also to other elements of the financial market. Suffice it to say that during this same time, the country has missed 84 insurance companies. As a result, significantly decreased the ability of all financial institutions to invest in the economy. Non-state pension funds, insurance companies, institutions for co-financing in Ukraine is, in fact, not developing.
«And the time today to reform financial market regulators? — asks the Chairman of the Board of the Institute of social and economic research, Anatoly Maksyuta, when our economy is at such a low level. When markets are growing and growing, then no law touches. And then there is a crisis and everyone starts to regulate when the market is at a low level. Not seregelyes we do it, and wouldn’t these changes mean that «chickens», as in the Jewish joke, starve, and we are left only with ideas?» Maksyuta offers to make such important decisions only after experts are confident that these innovations provide the country development. Meanwhile, in his opinion, the law is not discussed until the end of the philosophically Mature enough, says Vitaly Kniazhansky in the article «For two years – minus 80 banks» in the newspaper «Day».
In early November, the head of the security Service , Vasyl Hrytsak said that SBU has information about the plans of Russian special services to destabilize the situation in Ukraine this month. «Painted detailed scenarios of 10-15 regions of Ukraine. Who, how, what to do. Itemized budgets. These documentary materials obtained by surgery… Russia does not abandon its intentions to destabilize the situation in our state», — said Vasyl Hrytsak.
A few days ago, the details of the plan of the Kremlin to undermine the maximum for objective reasons, the fragile tranquility of our country was announced by the head of Department of protection of national statehood of the security service Anatoly Dublic. At the end of last week, he announced that the intelligence Agency and foreign intelligence officers, operational intelligence, in General, coincide with the contents of the so-called plan «Rod» hackers «pulled» from the mailbox of the adviser of the President of Russia Vladislav Surkov. «The direct management of the implementation of this plan will undertake its first Deputy Ardzinba, and contact with political movements and public organizations in Ukraine involved in the stock directly or blindly, by the citizen of Armenia Martirosyan (scandalous blogger, activist Antimaydana Armen Martirosyan, who a month ago at the request of the security service was removed from the flight of the airline «Belavia». — Ed.)», said Dublin.
He added: «the Enemy is also counting on the effectiveness of the use of blind activity of a number of social and political movements. The goal of the plan is an internal destabilization, the organization of early elections in Ukraine, strengthen the position of Pro-Russian forces in the new Parliament with the prospect of a revision of the European course and change of foreign policy vector of the state. Start active actions planned to protest on 15 November… According to the plan of curators, the protest is planned to create the appearance of mass support, in particular, has already launched an active campaign in social networks with calls any help to the protesters.
Anatoly Dublin warned that intelligence agencies obtained data show that the planned mass riots and even the death of the «protesters».
Despite the fact that information about the activation of the Russian special services on Ukrainian territory had been promulgated on the eve, the organizers of numerous campaigns and rallies in the capital have not changed their plans. Yesterday, the National police reported that he had received ten applications for the holding in the capital of protests in the period 15 to 22 November. Rally, in particular, intend to depositors, the Automaidan, the party «Fatherland» and unions. On Tuesday, November 15, according to the received in city hall documents, the buildings of the national Bank, the Verkhovna Rada, the Cabinet came to the protest action by depositors of the Bank «Khreschatyk», and also organized the FIRST «Firefighters of Chernobyl» citizens are demanding improved pension «Chernobyl». At the U.S. Embassy in Kiev, the representatives of TH «colours of life» had intended yesterday to rally in support of the rights of citizens affected by illegal buildings in the capital. At the Russian Embassy protesting against the war, but near the building of Prosecutor General’s office demanded the resignation of Yuri Lutsenko and prosecution Valeria Gontareva…
Meanwhile, as journalists found out, not all citizens who protested yesterday in the government quarter of Kiev, could explain what went into the streets. «Came to support a friend, he called for the company…» — answered a reporter’s question, one of the protesters. As the correspondent of Radio Liberty recorded a confession of a participant of the rally that he came to make 125 hryvnia.
Many refused to speak about the reasons which forced them to go outside. But was among the protesters and these depositors bursting of the banks that wanted to achieve a return on their money last but not least and not by a residual principle, and at least once the money will get the managers and employees of failed financial institutions. According to the national police, a total of yesterday in the capital on mass gatherings came about six thousand citizens, writes Anna Ivanenko in the article «tagging along with a friend. He called…» in the newspaper «Facts and comments».
In the government quarter of the capital, serious security measures: blocked traffic and metal detectors were installed. Enhanced security measures in the capital will be applied until November 22. Protests held in Kiev, although crowded, but nothing like the real people’s anger.
Most people to the Verkhovna Rada and the National Bank moved columns. Not all could say why go there. The most common cause meeting called rise in price of bread, the increase in tariffs and loss of cash that was stored in Bank accounts. Some admitted that they came to earn a little extra money for the «protest» will receive from 70 to 125 UAH.
In General, the experts, sociologists and politicians believe that the current protests are not «people’s anger», and Ukrainian politicians organized demonstrations. Their goal is not to solve social problems or tariff problem of depositors, and to provoke a political crisis and to seek early parliamentary elections, says Vladimir Fesenko. And, perhaps, not only parliamentary. «This political crisis in the conditions of incomplete war in the East is a risky challenge for Ukraine, — he said. — Unless, of course, the crisis will be able to create».
In addition, the inspirator of the protests may be the Russian Federation: once in two Eastern European countries – Bulgaria and Moldova – Pro-Russian candidate won the presidency, she is interested to create a power crisis and new elections in Ukraine, experts say. And if this is an exaggeration and the direct customer advocates the destabilization in Ukraine, it will gladly reap the benefits of these processes.
Protests can be used by Russian special services for organization of provocations, clashes between protesters and law enforcement, said Fesenko, who sees this as a real danger. «Unfortunately, the presence of Russian provocateurs is a fact, — says the analyst. In particular, they were just seen at the meetings, which were conducted in the summer Hope Savchenko. Was recorded even the names of people who previously participated in the Pro-Russian actions».
The contractor protests now called the party «Batkivshchyna» Yulia Tymoshenko. Also suspected of involvement in the riots and oligarch Dmitry Firtash, who publicly disown Tymoshenko, through the media continues to support it.
In the lists of loosening the situation referred to as former «regionals». This controlled Serhiy Lyovochkin part of the «Opposition bloc», and co-owner of TV channel NewsOne, the people’s Deputy Eugene Moore, whose name is associated with former Prime Minister Mykola Azarov.
A few days ago Moore has already spent in the capital of the protest: the so-called «muravskii grandmother» under the banner of his party «For life» and demanded the resignation of the head of the NBU Valeria Gontareva.
Share «grandmothers» were active and the first issue of the party list «Batkivshchyna» Hope Savchenko. Interestingly, the Deputy Tymoshenko Serhiy Sobolev called Murewa only as «the ally of Yanukovych». The question is, does his party colleague Savchenko, who is Moore, Sobolev said, «She is versed in Parliament, and she determined herself in this life. Not a person in this age, with such a biography be led by the hand even in the political school. It is determined, at a crossroads. Nadia, I understand, performs at all rallies,» he said. This writes Julia Artamoshina in the article «Protests in Kiev: who and why are they needed» in the edition «New time».
According to the Director of the Institute of socio-political designing «Dialogue» Andriy Miselyuk, in Kiev, a radical terror threat level has not increased, but the stated measures are likely to be used for reinsurance. «The situation is such that it is better to be safe. For example, France extends state of emergency that was imposed a year ago after the terrorist attacks,» he notes.
The police said that rallies will be applied to the metal detectors and enhanced methods of security controls. According to Vladimir Fesenko, it is necessary that the security service and the police held with the organizers preventive talks on how to contain the crowd.
«Except for the statements of the SBU needs to talk with the political forces, the organizers of these rallies. The coordinators of the protests should publicly call for the non-use of violence and weapons during the action. Two sides should be taken security measures, increased control, in order to quickly identify and neutralize provocateurs» – said the analyst.
Andrew Miseluk notes: to prohibit peaceful rallies, no one can, it only remains to maintain order during the meetings. «Most importantly, the security forces must be prepared for incidents. No preliminary measures we can use against shares. Need to protect public order, to avoid incidents or radical forces could not use them to their advantage,» – said the expert.
Russian provocations are unlikely to materialize in Ukraine, said political analyst Alexander paly. He stressed that Ukrainians now — against another political and economic shocks, and therefore will not support any destabilizing actions. «It is unlikely that Russian provocations will be embodied in Ukraine. The society we see that the economy stabiliziruemost no matter what. Whatever it was, the reforms are coming, and there’s no point in destabilizing – it doesn’t give. Can only the country down to push. The majority of the population understands it,» – said the expert. This writes Vitaly Andronicus in the article «Experts about possible provocations in Ukraine: to Destabilize no give» in the newspaper «Today».
16 Nov. Press review. Tariff «meeting» under the Rada: 125 UAH per shift 16.11.2016